Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Edmonton -1½ +127 over Detroit

9:30 PM EST. This is the end of the road in every sense for Detroit. The Red Wings close out their Western Canada swing in Edmonton on Monday night, the final stop on a trip that has already run through Vancouver and Calgary, and they arrive on the back of one of their poorer efforts of the season — a 4-1 loss at Calgary on Saturday that snapped a six-game point streak, a game where they never got traction, lost the special teams battle outright (0-for-2 on the power play while Calgary went 2-for-2), and took penalties at the worst times. Now they walk into Rogers Place against the highest-scoring team in the league, a team that is itself coming off an embarrassment. Edmonton got run out of its own building 7-2 by Toronto on Saturday, and the Oilers are 2-0-0 following losses this season. A tired team at the end of a trip meeting an angry team that doesn't lose twice — that is the whole bet.

The matchup only widens the gap. Edmonton has the top three scorers in the NHL right now: Connor McDavid with 33 points on an 11-game point streak, Leon Draisaitl with 12 goals and nine on a six-game scoring streak, and Evan Bouchard with 21 points on an eight-game streak. McDavid has been involved in 68.8 percent of Edmonton's goals this season, which would be the highest share in NHL history. The Oilers score an NHL-best 4.36 goals a game, and the ratings sheet has them No. 1 in the league at 4.57 against Detroit at 3.72. The head-to-head is just as one-sided: Edmonton has lost in regulation just once in its last nine meetings with Detroit, going 6-1-2 and outscoring the Wings 38-26, and hasn't lost in regulation in six straight home meetings, going 4-0-2 with a 27-17 edge. Detroit's scoring runs through Alex DeBrincat (6 goals, 12 points), with Lucas Raymond and former Oiler Viktor Arvidsson behind him, and John Gibson carries a 3-4-0 record with an .867 save percentage and 3.44 goals-against average into this one.

The honest counters start with the 5v5 table, which is kinder to Detroit than the standings are. The Red Wings' expected-goals share at 5v5 is 54.66 percent, better than Edmonton's 46.10, even though Detroit's shot share is poor — they get quality looks, not quantity, and their top line of DeBrincat, Emmitt Finnie and Michael Brandsegg-Nygard has outscored opponents 8-1 with them on the ice. Edmonton's own end is also no fortress: the Oilers rank 27th in goals against at 3.55 a game, and Tristan Jarry just allowed six goals on 32 shots on Saturday. And the puck line demands a two-goal win from a team that plays track meets, not lockdowns. The goalie is unconfirmed at writing — Devon Levi is the expected starter after Jarry's Saturday shelling — and the 8 PM check tonight will confirm it.

But the schedule is the tiebreaker, and it isn't close. A team closing a Western swing, on its third straight road city, off a flat loss, against a rested home team that just got humiliated in its own barn and has yet to follow a loss with another one. The moneyline at -184 is not a playable price, so the puck line is the vehicle: laying a goal and a half at a plus price with the league's best offense against a gassed opponent. Recommendation: Edmonton -1½ +128

Two notes: the +128 is FanDuel's puck line price (+124 at DraftKings), since the moneyline at -184 isn't playable under your plus-price rule. And the goalie is still unconfirmed — Levi is expected after Jarry got shelled Saturday, and tonight's 8 PM check will lock it in.

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