Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.
Vancouver +150 over Minnesota
10:00 PM EST. Let's be honest about what this is: a schedule bet on a hungry team, and the schedule is doing a lot of the work. Minnesota (7-3-2) played in Seattle last night — won 5-1, fine — and now has to travel up the coast and drop the puck at 10:00 PM ET tonight at Rogers Arena on the second night of a back-to-back. Vancouver (2-9-1) has been sitting at home since Thursday, rested, humiliated, and staring at a five-game losing streak with the season already starting to slip. Desperate teams at home against tired teams on a back-to-back is how +150 dogs cash, and the Canucks don't need to be good for one night — they need to be fresher and angrier for sixty minutes. Minnesota's injury sheet does the rest of the talking. Starting goalie Filip Gustavsson is out with a hip injury, top defenseman Brock Faber is out with a skull injury, and both Folignos are out — that's a starting goalie, a No. 1 defenseman and two top-nine forwards gone from a team that now has to play its second game in two nights. Jesper Wallstedt has been solid (6-2-2, .915, 2.19), but if the Wild ride him again on no rest, he's a tired goalie behind a depleted blue line; if they turn to Calvin Pickard, that's the guy who gave up five goals in his only appearance this season. Either way, the crease Minnesota brings into Vancouver tonight is a question mark, not a strength. And the offense leans hard on one man — Kirill Kaprizov has 12 of Minnesota's 37 goals this season. Slow him down and the Wild's scoring dries up fast; they managed one goal against Calgary on Thursday. One correction to the usual script: Quinn Hughes is not a Canuck anymore — he's a Wild player now, and his 11 assists are setting the table for Minnesota, not Vancouver. Vancouver's talent is real even if the record is a crime scene. Elias Pettersson has four goals and eight assists, Brock Boeser has eight points, and Jonathan Lekkerimaki has nine points in 12 games. The Canucks can score — the problem has been keeping the puck out of their own net, and a tired, short-handed Minnesota team is the softest landing spot they've had in weeks. One number note: your +150 matches the AP line, but +170 was out there elsewhere, so shop it if you haven't bet it yet. Now the part where we look at the other side of the ledger, because it's ugly. Vancouver is 2-9-1, 1-8-1 in its last ten, 1-4-0 at home, with a minus-21 goal differential — 35 scored, 56 allowed, giving up 4.67 a game. Thatcher Demko is out with a hip injury too, so Vancouver's own goalie situation is unconfirmed and could be just as shaky. Minnesota is 5-3-2 in its last ten, allows just 2.6 a game, and just rolled Seattle 5-1 with Blake Coleman scoring twice. The Wild are the better team, full stop. But the better team on a back-to-back, down its goalie and its best defenseman, laying nearly two-to-one on the road against a rested, hungry home dog — that's a price, not a pick
Our Pick
Vancouver +150 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.00)
