Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Washington -1½ +196 over Montreal

7:30 PM EST. From Capital One Arena tonight, Washington is favoured for a reason. Montreal is running on fumes. Yes, both teams played last night but there's a massive difference between losing 4-2 in regulation in Carolina and going to a shootout at home, blowing a 3-1 third-period lead to Buffalo, and then traveling to Washington. The Habs have now needed shootouts to win twice in four days. That's not resilience, that's a team surviving on coin flips, and coin flips don't travel well on zero rest.

Then there's the crease, which is a full-blown mismatch. Montreal turns to Jakub Dobes (4.44 goals-against, .857 save percentage) with Jacob Fowler getting the night off after last night's shootout. Dobes has been shaky all season. Washington counters with Charlie Lindgren (2.08, .931), who's been excellent in his work. A gassed team in front of a struggling goalie, on the road, against a rested-structure home team allowing 2.80 a night with an 88.2% penalty kill — that's how multi-goal wins happen.

Let's be honest about what Montreal is right now: a MASH unit that can't score. Mike Matheson is out, Ivan Demidov is out, the power play is a 10% disaster, and they're averaging 2.83 goals a night. Last night they got outshot and needed extra hockey to beat a Buffalo team missing its captain. Washington, for all its warts, is 7-3 in its last 10 at home and gets Boone Jenner and company against a defense allowing 3.67 a game. The Caps have owned this matchup too, taking seven of the last ten from the Habs.

Washington has dropped two straight and is on a back-to-back itself, and -1.5 needs a genuine margin, not a squeaker. But +196 is a monster price for a home favorite against a team playing its third game in four days with its backup... excuse us, its shaky goaltender. Montreal's luck runs out tonight. 

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