Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Toronto -1½ +195 over NY Islanders

7:30 PM EST. Toronto made a blockbuster trade on the eve of the season and then had to turn around and play Montreal almost immediately. If you watched that game rather than simply looking at the final score, the Maple Leafs didn't look like a team that had been thrown into a blender. They generated plenty of quality opportunities and could easily have won. Montreal got the better goaltending, and that was essentially the difference. Now Toronto has a game under its belt with the new pieces in place, and we're looking for a sharper performance tonight.

The Islanders are an appealing opponent to attack early. They spent much of last season being held together by Ilya Sorokin, whose Vezina-caliber goaltending covered up some ugly numbers underneath. New York allowed 2.88 goals per game, but its expected goals against was 3.36. That's roughly half a goal per game that Sorokin erased. That's not a small discrepancy. It's the difference between looking like a respectable defensive team and looking like a team with serious problems preventing quality chances.

There has also been considerable turnover. Anders Lee is gone, Bo Horvat is the new captain, Pete DeBoer is the new coach, and perhaps most importantly for tonight, Mathew Barzal is injured. Matias Maccelli has been added after producing only 39 points with Toronto last season, while Brayden Schenn and Logan Stanley are among the other newcomers. Matthew Schaefer is coming off a spectacular 59-point rookie season, but the Islanders are asking a lot from their young players while simultaneously trying to incorporate a new coach and several new pieces.

Toronto, meanwhile, has already gotten its first-game chaos out of the way. That's significant after making such a major trade immediately before the opener. Whatever adjustments were required were being made on the fly against Montreal, yet the Leafs still generated enough offense to win that game. The result doesn't bother us nearly as much as the performance encourages us.

The price is what really interests us. Rather than laying a heavy moneyline with Toronto, we're going to the puck line and getting +195. If our read is correct that the Islanders' defensive numbers last season were flattered considerably by extraordinary goaltending, this is precisely the type of matchup where Toronto's offensive talent can expose it. Sorokin can certainly steal another one—that's always the danger when playing New York—but we're not going to handicap every Islanders game on the assumption that their goaltender has to erase half a goal more than they deserve.

Toronto was better last night than the final score suggests. With one game to absorb the blockbuster trade and a much softer opponent in front of them tonight, we're looking for the Leafs to turn those quality chances into goals.

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