Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Chicago +225 over Vegas 

10:30 PM EST. Connor Bedard being out matters. Let's get that out of the way immediately. Chicago is missing its best player and the centerpiece of everything it's trying to build, while Vegas gets the home opener against a team that finished with 72 points last season. That's exactly the type of setup that sends bettors racing toward the favorite without spending much time looking at the price. At +225, we're going the other way.

This is a market-overreaction play as much as anything else. Bedard's absence unquestionably lowers Chicago's ceiling, but the Blackhawks aren't Connor Bedard and 19 guys they found wandering around the parking lot. Chicago spent the offseason adding legitimate NHL experience around its young core. Patrick Kane is back, Bowen Byram and Ian Cole bring Stanley Cup experience, Tyler Bertuzzi remains part of the veteran group, and youngsters Frank Nazar and Artyom Levshunov are another year further along. There's also Anton Frondell and Roman Kantserov joining the mix. This is a deeper and more interesting roster than the one the market remembers from last season.

And last season wasn't entirely devoid of progress. Chicago finished 29-39-14 with 72 points, an 11-point improvement from the previous year. The underlying numbers were admittedly ugly. The Blackhawks were near the bottom of the league in shots, scoring chances and high-danger opportunities at both ends of the ice, while finishing with the second-fewest goals per game. Nobody is hiding from that. But that's also precisely why we're being offered +225 rather than +140 or +150.

The Bedard injury only adds another layer to that discount. There's a tendency in these situations for the market to price the missing superstar and then price him again through public perception. Bettors see Chicago without Bedard at Vegas and don't ask what number is too high. They just look for the button that says Golden Knights. We're not suggesting Chicago is unaffected by his absence. We're suggesting there comes a point where the adjustment becomes large enough that the underdog becomes the more attractive wager.

Patrick Kane's return is particularly interesting in that regard. He's no longer the player who carried Chicago through its championship years, but he's still an accomplished offensive player who can create and distribute the puck. Chicago brought him back specifically to provide some veteran skill around this young group. Byram gives the Blackhawks considerably more ability from the blue line, while Nazar is capable of assuming a larger offensive role. Bedard's production can't simply be replaced, but Chicago has more ways to absorb his absence than it did a year ago.

Vegas also gets all the Opening Night theater. The home crowd, the lights, the introductions and probably enough pregame nonsense to make you think they're handing out the Stanley Cup before the puck drops. Chicago gets the much simpler assignment: show up with virtually no expectations and try to ruin the party. There is no pressure attached to the Blackhawks tonight because practically nobody expects them to win.

That's important because we're dealing with one hockey game, not asking Chicago to finish ahead of Vegas over 82. Hockey produces enough variance on its own—goaltending, special teams, a couple of posts, a deflection off somebody's skate—that laying an enormous price in October isn't particularly appealing. At +225, the Blackhawks need to win this game only about 31% of the time to justify the wager. We're willing to take our chances that this particular matchup is closer to that threshold than the market suggests.

Bedard being out is the headline. The +225 is the handicap. Chicago has added experience, its young players continue to develop, and the market has given us an enormous number because we're backing an ugly road underdog without its biggest star.

That's fine with us. Sometimes the price dictates the play.

 Sportsinteraction