Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Ottawa +112 over Philadelphia

7:00 PM EST Philadelphia is in a spot where the market still hasn’t fully adjusted to how different they look at home versus on the road. While the Flyers’ overall record doesn’t jump off the page, their play in their own building has been steadier, more structured, and far more disciplined defensively than what the season-long numbers suggest. They’re coming off a solid home win over Washington where they controlled pace, limited second chances, and got reliable goaltending, which has quietly been the biggest separator for them lately. Ottawa, meanwhile, has been competitive but inconsistent away from home, and their recent road loss in Carolina highlighted the same issues that have followed them all year: defensive lapses and goaltending volatility when games tighten up late.

From a matchup standpoint, Philadelphia’s edge lies in how the game is likely to be played. The Flyers are far more comfortable grinding games down at even strength, drawing penalties, and forcing opponents to work through traffic in the neutral zone. Ottawa’s offense thrives when games open up and the power play gets rolling, but that’s a tougher ask against a Flyers team that limits space well at home and doesn’t panic when trailing or protecting a lead. Travis Konecny and Owen Tippett are both in good form, and the Flyers’ scoring depth has been more reliable than Ottawa’s top-heavy production when playing in hostile environments. If this turns into a one-goal game late — which many Flyers home games do — Philadelphia has shown more composure in those moments.

The value angle comes from perception versus probability. Ottawa has won recent head-to-head meetings, which naturally pushes bettors in their direction, but those results are being weighted more heavily than current form and situational context. Philadelphia is priced like a coin-flip team at home despite having the goaltending edge, fewer defensive breakdowns, and a style that neutralizes Ottawa’s strengths. This isn’t about expecting the Flyers to dominate — it’s about trusting them to control the details that matter in a tight divisional matchup. At this price, Philadelphia to win offers value because they don’t need to be spectacular — just disciplined, patient, and opportunistic, which is exactly how they’ve been winning at home.

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