Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Edmonton -1½ over Minnesota

9:00 PM ET. Regulation only. The market sees a Wild team on an 11-game point streak and assumes this is a freight train that can’t be slowed down. We see something different: Minnesota’s been riding a heater built on goaltending that’s not sustainable, and now they walk into Edmonton to start a four-game Western road trip… against a desperate team that finally looked like itself again.

The Oilers’ 4–0 win over Seattle wasn’t just a result — it was a reset. Stuart Skinner finally gave Edmonton a game where the first shot didn’t go in, and the big guns responded instantly. McDavid, Draisaitl, Hyman, Nugent-Hopkins — all found the sheet, and all looked like the version of the Oilers that scares the hell out of teams. Edmonton didn’t cheat the game once. That was a full, complete 60, and it’s been rare this year.

This is exactly when Edmonton becomes dangerous: when they show signs of waking up and return home. This is the first game of a five-game homestand. When the Oilers build momentum at Rogers Place, they stack goals in bunches. And if Skinner simply gives them league-average goaltending, they can blow teams out again.

Minnesota has been cashing every ticket imaginable, but context matters. The Wild have been feasting on soft spots, backup goalies, and games where Jesper Wallstedt has stood on his head. That’s not a long-term model. Now they’re heading into Edmonton — against the fastest, most dangerous offensive environment in hockey — after playing back-to-backs and emotional wins over Colorado and Buffalo. That’s the worst possible time to sell.

Edmonton is live to score five here. When McDavid and Draisaitl get rolling, the puck doesn’t come off their stick until it’s in the back of the net, and Minnesota’s defensive zone coverage isn’t built to survive extended possession. The Wild penalty kill has been masking issues because of hot goaltending. If they give Edmonton three power plays, they may not survive any of them.

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