Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Toronto -110 over Pittsburgh

7:05 PM ET. OT included. Pittsburgh suddenly looks lively after picking up four points in two nights, and that alone is enough to get the market leaning their way. But when you peel back the surface and look at how those wins came, you’re left with a team running extremely hot in very small samples. Comebacks, bounces, and an overtime winner do not equal “turned the corner.” They equal variance.

The Penguins were down 2-0 to Columbus, at home, on tired legs, and needed every break imaginable to escape. They’re now playing their third game in four nights after expending max energy in back-to-back wins. This is exactly where an older, thin roster tends to sag.

Toronto, meanwhile, looks like a dead team walking on the road — which is precisely why they’re playable. They blew a two-goal lead in Washington, they’ve been hemmed in for long stretches, and they’re taking heat from their new coach. That’s not bad news from a wagering standpoint. That’s the marketplace overcorrecting. Berube has already started sending messages (Domi scratched), and Toronto’s best period on this trip was the opening 20 minutes Friday before fatigue set in. With rest equalizers now flipped back in their favor, the Leafs’ pace and skill should finally appear for more than a single stretch.

Joseph Woll has also been the best goaltender in this matchup by a mile. He’s held Toronto together through this ugly patch while the Pens continue to lean on Tristan Jarry’s inconsistency. Add in that Pittsburgh is coming off an OT game while Toronto is not, and the Penguins’ older core will be playing uphill the deeper this game goes.

If Nylander returns, great. If not, Toronto still brings the deeper lineup, the sharper goalie, and the better long-term profile. Pittsburgh’s two-game spike creates an inflated perception of improvement, while the Leafs’ recent failures push this line to a cheap, playable number.

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