Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

San Jose +145 over Ottawa

7:05 PM ET. OT included. Ottawa is feeling pretty good about itself these days. They’re cashing points in eight of nine, they’re off to their best 20-game start in nearly a decade, and they just stole one in Anaheim with a late winner. Good for them. Teams can absolutely ride that kind of early-season harmony for a while. The problem is this: the market loves a tidy record and ignores what’s underneath it. Ottawa’s surge has been built on late goals, OT scraps and a whole lot of timely bounces. That stuff looks great in the standings, but it’s fool’s gold when you’re priced as a road favorite on the California swing. San Jose, meanwhile, is the exact opposite. Their record doesn’t match their form because their underlying engine is actually humming. The Sharks are 6-0-1 in their last seven at home and they aren’t fluking results — they’re carrying play, weathering pushes, and suddenly getting elite goaltending from Askarov.

The kid has a .952 save percentage over his last seven games. That isn’t luck. That’s a breakout. When you’re getting that kind of reliability in goal, you don’t need to dominate — you just need to be competitive. And the Sharks have been far more than competitive. What’s also being ignored is how dangerous San Jose’s young core has become. Celebrini is already one of the five most productive players in the league and he’s nineteen years old. Will Smith is riding a heater of his own. These aren’t flashes — these guys are tilting games. Oddsmakers haven’t caught up yet because San Jose still carries the “rebuilding doormat” reputation, but the talent spike is happening right now and it’s happening loudly. Ottawa can absolutely win a track meet, but the Senators are not built to dictate one. They needed a last-minute dagger to beat Anaheim.

They’ve won tight, margin-thin games all month, and that profile breaks down over time, especially on long road swings where depth erosion shows up. And while Ullmark has owned the Sharks historically, historical goaltending trends mean nothing when the opponent’s lineup is completely different than the one you owned.

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