Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Calgary +120 over Dallas

10:00 PM ET. OT included. Dallas brings a sexy record into Calgary — six wins in seven games, points in seven straight on the road, Robertson on fire, Oettinger standing on his head. The market sees all of that and reflexively slaps the Stars up as a road favorite. That’s the surface story. The deeper story — the one we care about — is that Dallas is winning on the back of an outrageous finishing heater and elite goaltending, not sustained territorial dominance. That’s not a profile you want to be laying road juice with.

Robertson has nine goals in five games after scoring once in his previous 14. That’s not “form.” That’s volatility. Same with Rantanen’s run, same with Oettinger looking like prime Hasek for two periods in Vancouver. These streaks are great for headlines, but they prop up a team that’s conceding far more dangerous looks than a legit wagon should. When a team keeps surviving long stretches without the puck, regression is always waiting around the corner.

Now to Calgary — yes, dead-last Calgary — thah is where the true value lies. Their win in Buffalo wasn’t some fluke in a lost season. It was an extension of quietly strong metrics masked by brutal puck luck. The Flames have been generating chances all year and getting nothing for it. On Wednesday, a few finally found twine. You can call it lucky if you want; I call it overdue.

Coronato finally popping. Andersson driving play like he means it. A group that’s been buried in the standings but is nowhere near as bad as its record suggests. Calgary’s effort level has never been the issue. Their finishing has. When the dam leaks even a little, these undervalued dogs become live threats. If there’s ever a time to fade the Stars, it’s when the market is drunk on recent results.

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