Posted at 11:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Calgary +130 over Buffalo

7:30 PM ET. OT included. Calgary sits dead last in the league with 13 points, and the market treats them like a hopeless case. That’s great — because beneath the standings is a team playing far better hockey than its record suggests. The Flames rank 5th in the NHL in puck possession, they control play for long stretches, and they’ve been one of the league’s biggest victims of bad “puck luck” — bottom-tier shooting percentage, bottom-tier save percentage, and a long list of games where they do the work and get none of the reward. That’s the exact profile we look to buy, not bail on.

Buffalo comes in off a 5-1 win over Edmonton — a scoreline that looks shiny until you dig in. Edmonton was flat, sloppy, and mentally absent. The Sabres got bounces, the Oilers gave them free goals, and Buffalo’s depth kids padded their numbers. That’s fine. It also creates market inflation, because nobody in the world loves overreacting to a Sabres blowout more than the betting public.

Buffalo still sits last in the East. Their “two-game win streak” comes mostly from one team imploding (Edmonton) and another floundering (Chicago). They remain wildly inconsistent, still missing key bodies, still leaning on raw kids who haven’t shown sustainability. And now they’re laying a price against a Calgary team with elite possession metrics? Hard pass.

Calgary, despite being a standings eyesore, continues to do the things that lead to winning — controlling the puck, driving play, generating chances. What they haven’t done is finish or get a save. That doesn’t last forever. Their loss in Chicago was a perfect example of how variance can punish the better side: tie game in the third, they push, they get two bizarre-nonsense deflections against them, and suddenly it’s a “bad loss.”

Flames coach Ryan Huska is right: you “earn your bounces.” Calgary’s underlying play has earned them better than this. The market won’t reflect it, which means the value lands squarely on the Flames.

Buffalo is four points out of a playoff spot, they’re feeling good, they’re talking optimistic — and that’s when a team like Calgary, playing back-to-back with anger and urgency, becomes a live underdog. The Flames are frustrated, not broken. There’s a difference.

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