Posted at 11:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Columbus +150 over Winnipeg

8:05 PM ET. OT included. The market sees Columbus on a back-to-back with travel and immediately defaults to “Jets or nothing.” We’re not buying it. In fact, we’re stepping directly into the steam with the dog because Winnipeg has no business being priced like a stable, trustworthy favorite right now.

The Blue Jackets come in riding a five-game points streak (3-0-2), and more importantly, they’re finally playing something that resembles organized, competitive hockey. They blew a two-goal third-period lead last night in Montreal, sure — but they didn’t fold. They stabilized, they responded, and they won the shootout. That’s not noise. That’s a team showing signs of growth after a brutal early stretch.

Columbus’s special teams — an absolute clown show for the first month — have quietly become competent. They’re 18-for-20 on the PK over their last 11 games and the power play has finally stopped handing goals to the Zamboni driver, going 3-for-8 recently.

Meanwhile, Winnipeg comes limping home after a 2-4 road trip, and the underlying problem continues:

This defense isn’t right.

This penalty kill is getting torched.

This team is leaking high-danger looks like a sieve.

Opponents have gone 7-for-24 on the power play against them over the last seven games. That’s not “a bad stretch.” That’s structural failure. And even though the Jets picked up warm & fuzzy shootout points on the back end of the trip, the body of work is soft. When you give up goals in bunches and rely on Connor Hellebuyck to rescue you nightly, you’re not the type of team that should be laying significant juice.

Columbus also gets Elvis Merzlikins back in the cage after Jet Greaves handled the last five. Elvis hasn’t been elite this year, but he’s rested, he’s capable of hot pockets of play, and he’s stepping into a game where the Jackets don’t need greatness — they need “good enough.” With Winnipeg’s current defensive gaps and declining PK, “good enough” might very well get the job done.

Kirill Marchenko is also sitting on the verge of franchise history, riding a 12-game point streak, and when teams see milestones like this on the table, the bench plays a little harder to help the guy get it. That matters.

Winnipeg gets two bodies back tonight, but neither fixes the real problem: they’re slow defensively, they’re undisciplined, and their structure collapses under pressure.

Columbus isn't glamorous, but they’re competing, they’re defending, and they’re catching a price that’s inflated because the market is clinging to last year’s Jets.

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