Posted at 11:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

St. Louis -105 over Toronto

7:05 PM ET. OT included. We’re not here to guess which struggling team “wants it more.” We’re here to play numbers, situations and market distortions — and the market continues to give Toronto the same respect it gives them every October… except it’s mid-November, half the roster is injured, and the Leafs haven’t beaten anybody in two weeks.

Toronto is now on a five-game losing streak, blowing leads like it’s performance art. They led 2-1 in Chicago, led 3-2 vs. L.A., and still found ways to lose both games. That isn’t bad luck — that’s a fragile, depleted team that doesn’t trust itself to close 20 minutes of hockey. Craig Berube even said it:

“We’re just a little bit unconfident right now.”

A little?

The Leafs are missing Matthews, Stolarz, Roy, Tanev and Carlo — that’s a No. 1 center, a goaltender, two top-9 forwards and two top-4 defensemen. That isn’t “next man up.” That’s “who can still walk?”

Toronto’s roster right now is a Jenga tower held together by duct tape and hope.

The Blues aren’t exactly rolling, but their issues are far more solvable. St. Louis comes in after a bad homestand and a dud vs. Vegas — but that creates the buy-low spot. Jim Montgomery publicly called out his team for being soft, static and reactive, and those comments usually spark short-term urgency. St. Louis also heads out on a five-game road trip, which is a situation we love. because more often than not, that team is not flat out of the gate.

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