Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Buffalo +165 over Utah

9:00 PM ET. OT included. We’re buying the team that can’t buy a bounce. The Sabres have dropped three straight and own just one win in their last seven, which is exactly why they’re priced where they are — buried under public perception. The market sees a club that hasn’t won on the road, but what it’s missing is the underlying process. Buffalo ranks top-12 in shot volume and expected goals yet dead last in shooting percentage. Translation: the puck luck has been radioactive. When you’re generating 29 shots a night and converting under 9%, the “problem” isn’t effort — it’s variance.

Utah, meanwhile, has completely lost the plot. The Mammoth have dropped five of six and look nothing like the squad that briefly led the West a few weeks ago. Their effort level is inconsistent, their defensive structure is leaking chances, and they’re clinging to moral victories after getting run out by Ottawa. That’s not the mentality you want laying a price.

Nick Schmaltz has been the lone bright spot, but he can’t carry a team that’s coughing up rush chances and overworking its goaltenders. The Mammoth haven’t beaten anyone convincingly since Halloween and have spent more time chasing games than controlling them. That’s where a desperate Buffalo side can finally capitalize — tilt the ice, keep attacking, and let math do the rest.

Take advantage of BET365's early MLB payout offer! 

For straight bets, if the team you back to win goes 5 runs ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

For parlays and Same Game Parlays, if a team you have backed goes 5 runs ahead, this selection will be marked as won within My Bets, with the remaining selections left to run.

Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

v