Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Calgary +125 over St. Louis

8:00 PM ET. OT included. We’re not here to sugarcoat Calgary’s offense — they’ve been blanked in back-to-back games and own the worst goals-per-game mark in the league. That’s precisely why we’re buying. The market sees “two straight shutouts” and stamps a panic tag on the Flames, while the deeper truth is that their process hasn’t fallen apart at all. They controlled zone time against Minnesota, generated 33 scoring chances, and simply didn’t finish. Puck luck has a short shelf life, and regression owes them a bounce or three.

The Blues, meanwhile, are dressed up as a favorite on name value and home ice, but they’ve quietly lost nine of their last eleven while being outshot in nearly every one of them. Head coach Jim Montgomery responded with a bag skate on Sunday — the oldest trick in the “we’re out of answers” playbook. When coaches start bag skating teams in November, it’s because the message isn’t landing. That’s not a foundation you want to lay chalk with.

Calgary’s calling card under Ryan Huska has been defensive structure and forecheck persistence. Even during their scoring drought, they’ve controlled expected goals and suppressed quality looks. The Flames’ five-on-five play remains top-half in shot share; the puck just hasn’t gone in. That’s variance, not identity. They’ll see Jordan Binnington here — a goalie who has posted sub-.900 save percentages in five of his last seven starts and just gave up four to Seattle while watching his team melt in front of him.

St. Louis’ blue line is a mess, their confidence is low, and their best scorer from the first meeting (Jake Neighbours) is out. Calgary, on the other hand, is angry, healthy, and due. We’re not betting on who looked good last week — we’re betting on who’s undervalued tonight.

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