Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Washington +125 over Tampa Bay

7:00 PM ET. There’s a lot to like about this price on Washington. The Caps have quietly been one of the league’s strongest five-on-five teams, yet they keep getting buried by special teams. That creates market value, because the final scores haven’t matched the actual play. Washington outchances opponents more often than not — they just can’t buy a goal on the power play or prevent one on the penalty kill. Those things tend to normalize over time, and we’re betting that shift starts soon.

Tampa Bay is coming off a feel-good road trip capped by a big win in Vegas, which is often when a team flattens out. The Lightning have been very ordinary in their own end, ranking near the bottom of the NHL in expected goals against. Their goaltending has been inconsistent, and they’ve relied heavily on their top line to generate offense. That works fine when Kucherov and Hagel are rolling, but the Caps’ structure under Carbery is designed to slow that kind of rush-based attack.

The Caps’ issue has been simple: they’re losing the special teams battle every night. That’s fixable, especially against a Lightning penalty kill that’s far from elite. Dylan Strome, Tom Wilson, and Aliaksei Protas are starting to generate real chemistry at even strength, and if Washington can get even one power-play breakthrough, it flips the math completely.

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