Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Ottawa -1½ +195 over Boston

7:00 PM ET. Regulation only. The Bruins have won four in a row and the market has fallen back in love with them, but context matters. Three of those wins came in overtime or a shootout, and the other was a one-goal escape against Buffalo. They’ve been outplayed for long stretches, living off goaltending and puck luck, and their underlying numbers remain poor. Boston continues to get hemmed in its own end, ranking near the bottom of the league in expected goals against over the last two weeks.

Now they return home on short rest to face an Ottawa team that’s been idle since Saturday. The Senators have had five full days to recover and prepare while the Bruins are grinding through their busiest stretch of the month. Ottawa is skating, generating offense, and trending upward under Travis Green. They’ve scored four or more in four of their last six and already pummeled this same Bruins team 7–2 less than two weeks ago.

Boston’s late-game magic has masked a ton of flaws. They’ve trailed in seven of their last ten games and keep getting bailed out by one player or another in the dying minutes. That’s not sustainable. Ottawa, meanwhile, is rested, confident, and has rediscovered its scoring touch. Drake Batherson has been carrying the offense since Brady Tkachuk went down, and Tim Stutzle looks engaged again after a sluggish start.

The Sens are the fresher, more dangerous side here. The number is inflated because of Boston’s “win streak,” which is mostly smoke and mirrors. Ottawa’s the value side, and if they win, it’s probably not by one.

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