Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Carolina -1½ +210 over New York Rangers

7:00 PM ET. Regulation only. The Rangers have won three straight, they just wrapped up a solid Western Canada trip, and they’re finally back home looking for their first win at Madison Square Garden after five straight losses there. They’ve got some swagger back, they’re talking about “character” and “buying in,” and they’re a slight favorite tonight. All of that sounds great—until you look at the number.

New York has been outplayed in most of its home games, scoring just six times in five tries, and they’ve now got the pressure of avoiding a franchise-record sixth straight home loss. That kind of psychological weight can crush a team early in the year, especially when they run into a disciplined, structured group like Carolina. The ‘Canes might not be clicking offensively right now, but they’re still one of the league’s top five-on-five possession teams. They tilt the ice more often than not, and that’s a brutal matchup for a Rangers team that thrives on opportunistic offense and goaltending rather than sustained zone time.

Carolina dropped a 2-1 decision in Boston on Saturday, but that game was closer than the score suggests—they controlled the puck, had better scoring chances, and got stoned by a hot goalie. The Hurricanes haven’t been great in the third period lately, which is likely fueling the market’s mild hesitation, but regression cuts both ways. This is a veteran, well-coached group that knows how to respond after a bad period stretch, and they’ve historically owned this matchup. Carolina is 6-1 in the last seven meetings, outscoring New York 18-7 in that span, including a sweep last season.

Meanwhile, the Rangers are a team whose metrics don’t back the recent results. They allowed just 13 shots in Seattle, which looks impressive, but that was largely because the Kraken couldn’t generate a thing offensively—not because the Rangers suddenly became defensive juggernauts. Their five-on-five numbers are still mediocre and their expected goals differential is underwater. The Rangers’ mini-run was smoke and mirrors fueled by a few OT bounces and now they are overpriced. The situation dictates we go for the kill here, 'Canes on the puck line is the call. 

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