Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Denver +125 over Seattle 

We're not sure why the Seachickens are getting so much love this week. Sure, they're the defending Super Bowl champions, and sure, they gave undefeated San Francisco everything it could handle last Sunday. But since when does losing a football game make a team more attractive at the betting window? Apparently, when you're wearing a Super Bowl ring, the market is willing to overlook quite a bit.

Seattle is 3-2, the exact same record as Denver, but a closer examination of those three victories raises some questions. The Seahawks escaped New England 13-10 in the season opener despite being badly outplayed. They followed that up with wins over Arizona and the winless Chargers. Their two losses came against Washington and San Francisco. That's hardly an overwhelming résumé, yet they're laying a price on the road against a team with an identical record.

Now consider Denver's opposition. The Broncos' two defeats came against Kansas City and San Francisco, two teams with a combined 10-0 record. Their victories came against Jacksonville, the Rams and the Chargers. Somehow, that body of work has produced a home underdog against a Seattle team whose accomplishments have been considerably less impressive than its reputation.

And here's where the scheduling situation becomes particularly interesting. Seattle is coming off an emotional, physical encounter with San Francisco, has to travel to Denver on a short week and has Kansas City waiting next on the schedule. That's a demanding stretch for any team, never mind one whose offense has been struggling to establish an identity.

The Seahawks rank 26th in offensive EPA per play and 30th in rushing EPA per play. That's a significant problem for an offense built around establishing the ground game and creating opportunities for Sam Darnold through play-action. When Seattle can't run the football, the entire operation becomes considerably less threatening. Denver's defense has an opportunity to exploit that weakness, particularly in the thin air of Mile High against an opponent operating on limited preparation and recovery time.

Seattle's defense deserves respect. It ranks second in the NFL in EPA per play allowed, and Denver's offense hasn't exactly been lighting up scoreboards. But this isn't a matchup between an offensive powerhouse and a helpless opponent. Both teams have limitations, and the difference between them is nowhere near as substantial as the betting line suggests.

As for Bo Nix, we've never been members of his fan club. We're not particularly interested in becoming members, either. But personal opinions about quarterbacks have absolutely nothing to do with identifying value. If you're interested in discussing thoughts and feelings, call your mother. This is the betting business, not a family therapy session.

What matters is the price, the circumstances and the market's perception of these teams. Seattle is benefiting from its championship pedigree and the perception that a narrow loss to San Francisco somehow enhances its credentials. Denver, meanwhile, is being discounted after an unimpressive victory over the Chargers. Funny how one team gets credit for losing while the other gets punished for winning.

At +125, Denver needs to win just 44.4% of the time to justify the wager. Two teams with identical records, comparable offensive concerns and considerably different market perceptions are meeting in one of the NFL's more difficult road environments. Add Seattle's short-week travel, its physical game against San Francisco and the upcoming matchup with Kansas City, and the Broncos become a very attractive proposition.

The Seachickens may be defending champions, but they're not defending their title tonight. They're playing a football game in Denver, and the market is asking us to pay extra for last February's accomplishments.

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