Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.
L.A. Rams -3½ -110 over Buffalo
8:15 PM EST. Remember back in August when the Los Angeles Rams were supposed to go undefeated? The media couldn't stop talking about them. The betting public was salivating. Matthew Stafford was going to lead another Super Bowl charge, and the Rams were being discussed as though the other 31 teams were merely showing up to collect their paychecks. Four weeks later, Los Angeles is 2-2, and suddenly nobody wants anything to do with the Rams.Funny how quickly things change in the NFL.
The Rams were thoroughly outplayed by San Francisco in their opener, lost another game to Denver, and barely escaped Philadelphia last week. That victory over the Eagles could easily have gone the other way, which means this supposedly unstoppable football machine isn't far removed from being 1-3. The Rams' stock hasn't just fallen. It's taken the elevator to the basement.
Meanwhile, Josh Allen is the new Superman. He can throw it, run it, escape three defenders, leap over a fourth and probably sell popcorn at halftime. The football world loves Allen, and with good reason. He's one of the most gifted quarterbacks in the league, and Buffalo's 3-1 record has the Bills looking like legitimate contenders again. Now Allen takes his one-man show to Los Angeles for Monday Night Football, with the entire country watching and he's getting 3½ points! What's not to like?
Well, for starters, Buffalo's three victories came against Chargers, Texans and Lions, teams with a combined record of 4-11. That's hardly a collection of heavyweights. The Bills have looked impressive, but the quality of their opposition deserves a closer examination before everybody starts polishing the Lombardi Trophy.
The Rams, on the other hand, have already been through some difficult assignments, and their disappointing record has dramatically changed how the market views them. That's the attraction here
Four weeks ago, Los Angeles was considered one of the best teams in football. Now the Rams are laying just 3½ points at home against Buffalo, and the betting public is being handed an opportunity to grab more than a field goal with Superman himself.
We understand the appeal. Allen is capable of taking over any game, and the Bills are certainly dangerous enough to win outright. But there's a difference between recognizing Buffalo's ability and deciding the Bills are the right side at the current price. The market has fallen out of love with the Rams at precisely the same time it has become increasingly enamored with Buffalo. There's also something particularly appealing about backing a talented team whose early-season struggles have completely changed the conversation. The Rams haven't suddenly forgotten how to play football. Stafford hasn't forgotten how to throw, and Sean McVay hasn't forgotten how to coach. Los Angeles simply hasn't lived up to the enormous expectations that surrounded it throughout the summer.
Expectations, however, don't determine a team's actual ability. Buffalo arrives with the better record, the more celebrated quarterback and all the excitement that comes with a nationally televised appearance. The Rams arrive with a disappointing record and four weeks of criticism. Guess which team the public would rather bet? We're not interested in buying Buffalo when everybody is telling us how wonderful the Bills are. We're much more interested in buying the Rams when the same people who couldn't stop praising them in August have suddenly decided they're overrated. The Rams were overpriced when everybody loved them. Now that nobody wants them, the price has become considerably more attractive. Josh Allen might be Superman, but even Superman has to deal with kryptonite occasionally. Recommendation: Rams -3½
Our Pick
L.A. Rams -3½ -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)