Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Dallas -8½ -110 over Tampa Bay

8:15 PM EST. The Dallas Cowboys have a defense that couldn't stop a senior citizens' shuffleboard team from marching down the field. Everybody knows it. Dallas is allowing nearly 400 yards and 28 points per game, and opponents have been treating the Cowboys' secondary like an all-you-can-eat buffet. But here's the good news for Dallas: Tampa Bay is coming to town, and the Buccaneers might be the one offense in professional football that can make the Cowboys' defense look like the 1985 Chicago Bears.

Tampa Bay is 0-4, and it's not an attractive 0-4, either. The Buccaneers have been downright dreadful. They've lost to Cincinnati, Cleveland, Minnesota and Green Bay, and the offense has shown about as much imagination as a bowl of oatmeal. Now they're heading to Dallas on four days' rest, without Baker Mayfield, to play a nationally televised game with a quarterback who was buried so far down the depth chart that he probably needed a flashlight and a map to find the practice field.

Enter Jalon Daniels. Daniels was thrown into the fire last week against Green Bay, and let's just say nobody is rushing to Canton to reserve a spot for his bust. He threw two interceptions, looked completely overwhelmed at times, and spent much of the afternoon appearing as though someone had handed him the playbook in a foreign language. Now he gets four days to prepare for another NFL defense, travel to Dallas and perform under the Thursday night lights. Terrific. Perhaps the Buccaneers can squeeze in a couple of practices between the flight, the team meetings and explaining to Daniels which receivers are actually on his team.

Of course, Tampa Bay's defensive numbers aren't terrible. That's what makes this line interesting. But take a closer look at the offenses responsible for those numbers. Cleveland, Minnesota with its quarterback problems, and Green Bay have hardly provided a murderer's row of offensive challenges. The one genuinely explosive offense Tampa Bay faced was Cincinnati, and the Bengals hung 33 points on them.

Now comes Dallas.

Dak Prescott is directing an offense averaging more than 30 points per game, and CeeDee Lamb just caught 17 passes for 189 yards against Houston. Seventeen receptions! There are receivers who don't get targeted 17 times in a month. Javonte Williams added three touchdowns, and the Cowboys scored 34 points despite trailing by double digits at halftime. This offense has weapons everywhere, and Prescott is distributing the football like a blackjack dealer on a Saturday night.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay couldn't generate a single sack against Green Bay last week, despite facing an offensive line that has been held together with duct tape, medical tape and positive thinking. If the Buccaneers couldn't put pressure on Jordan Love under those circumstances, what exactly is the plan against Prescott and this Dallas offense? Hope he gets tired of completing passes?

The argument for Tampa Bay is obvious. Dallas can't stop anybody, the Buccaneers have kept their losses relatively close, and eight and a half points is a substantial number. Fair enough. But the market appears to be treating the Cowboys' defensive problems as though every opponent is equally capable of exploiting them. They're not.

This is a particularly favorable matchup for a Dallas defense desperate for something resembling a respectable performance. The Cowboys don't have to suddenly become an elite defensive unit. They're facing an inexperienced quarterback operating on a short week, with limited preparation, a struggling supporting cast and an offense that hasn't shown much ability to threaten anybody and don't underestimate the physical demands on Tampa Bay's defense. Four days after chasing Green Bay around the field, the Buccaneers now have to deal with Prescott, Lamb, George Pickens and the rest of an offense that can attack from just about anywhere. Dallas can keep applying pressure offensively, while Tampa Bay's offense offers little reason to believe it can consistently answer.

The Cowboys' defensive reputation is keeping this number more manageable than it otherwise might be. That's the opportunity. Dallas is being priced partly on the assumption that its defense will turn this into another shootout. Against this Tampa Bay offense, that assumption looks awfully generous.

For one glorious Thursday night, the Cowboys' defense might actually resemble a professional football unit. Somebody should alert the Smithsonian. It could be a once-in-a-lifetime exhibit.

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