Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Atlanta +6 -105 over Pittsburgh

1:00 PM EST. Nothing moves an NFL point spread quite like quarterback news, and nothing causes bettors to lose their minds faster either. Tua Tagovailoa hurts his oblique on Thursday, suddenly Cooper Rush might start, and Atlanta becomes radioactive. Nobody wants them. Perfect. We’ll take Atlanta plus the inflated points and say thank you very much. The market is treating the possible loss of Tua as though Patrick Mahomes just disappeared from the lineup. Tua was released by Miami, signed by Atlanta for $1.3 million and spent the summer competing for this job. Now we're supposed to believe his possible absence transforms Pittsburgh into some powerhouse worthy of laying nearly a touchdowAn? Come on.

What exactly has Pittsburgh done to deserve this kind of respect? They hired Mike McCarthy after Mike Tomlin left, reunited him with a 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers and apparently we're supposed to pretend it's 2011 again. Rodgers can still play, but Father Time remains undefeated and he's standing in the pocket with a stopwatch. Pittsburgh may turn out to be decent. They may even make the playoffs. But we're not interested in paying today for what everybody thinks they might become tomorrow. This is precisely how bad favorites are created: recognizable names, familiar uniforms, an attractive narrative and an opponent nobody wants to bet.

Atlanta isn't asking Cooper Rush to become Joe Montana if Tua can't go. Rush has been around the league forever and has started NFL games before. More importantly, Atlanta has Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts. There are enough legitimate weapons here for a competent quarterback to function. Yet listen to the discussion surrounding this game and you'd swear Atlanta announced Friday morning that they're holding open quarterback tryouts in the parking lot. That's the overreaction we're interested in. The difference between Tua and Rush might matter, but does it matter enough to justify Atlanta +5½? We don't believe it does.

And that's the entire point of betting numbers instead of football teams. Pittsburgh doesn't have to be terrible for Atlanta to be the right wager. The Steelers simply have to be overpriced, and this number reeks of it. New coach, ancient quarterback, new offense, first game of the season and absolutely nothing has been established yet. Still, bettors are being asked to lay a substantial price because Pittsburgh is at home and Atlanta's quarterback situation looks ugly. Ugly is good. Ugly creates value. If everything about Atlanta looked wonderful, we wouldn't be getting this many points. You don't find bargains at Tiffany's; you find them in the aisle everybody else walked past.

We'll happily walk down that aisle. Let everyone else explain why Pittsburgh can't possibly lose this game and why Atlanta has no chance if Cooper Rush starts. We don't need Atlanta to be better than Pittsburgh. We don't even need Atlanta to win. We need the Falcons to stay inside the number in a Week 1 game featuring a Pittsburgh team that has proven absolutely nothing. If Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy are about to turn back the clock 15 years and become the NFL's newest superpower, we'll tip our cap. Until they prove it, we're not laying inflated points with them because Tua Tagovailoa pulled an oblique on Thursday.

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