Posted Friday at 2:30pm EST and odds are subject to change.

NFL Week: 1

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criteria we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday. We’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 8 AM and 11:00 AM EST

Week 1 Sunday Sept 13

Baltimore -3.5 over Indianapolis

Baltimore enters this opener with a new voice on the sideline, but the identity of this football team should remain familiar. The Ravens have built their success around imposing their will offensively while making opponents uncomfortable defensively, and that formula travels particularly well into a season opener. Indianapolis is getting some respect from the market because there is optimism surrounding its direction, but optimism is not the same thing as being ready to handle Baltimore for four quarters.

The matchup also favors Baltimore because the Ravens can attack this game in several different ways. They do not need to turn the contest into a track meet, nor do they need to rely on one particular phase to carry them. Their ability to control the tempo, stay patient and force Indianapolis to defend the entire field should eventually create the separation we need. The Colts may have enough to make this competitive early, but sustaining that effort against Baltimore is a different proposition.

This is the type of opener where we would rather back the established identity than speculate on how much improvement another team might make. Baltimore has the better overall setup, plays with confidence at home and should become stronger as the game develops. Lay the points with the Ravens and expect them to pull away late. Recomendation: Baltimore -3.5

Atlanta +3½ over Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh is receiving plenty of respect entering the new campaign, largely because of the belief that its coaching and defensive structure will keep the team competitive regardless of what happens offensively. That makes sense, but it also creates a situation where the Steelers are being asked to carry the burden of expectation immediately. Atlanta has a very different setup, and that can be advantageous for an underdog playing without the same pressure.

The Falcons should approach this game with the intention of making Pittsburgh earn everything. Atlanta has enough versatility to keep the Steelers from dictating the entire contest, and a game that remains controlled and physical plays directly into the value of taking the points. Pittsburgh would rather make this a game where one or two big defensive plays decide the outcome, while Atlanta simply needs to stay within striking distance and avoid giving the favorite easy opportunities.

We are not asking Atlanta to dominate here. We are asking the Falcons to play a disciplined road game and force Pittsburgh to win by more than a field goal. That is a reasonable price for an underdog that should remain involved from beginning to end. Recomendation: Atlanta +3½

Carolina +3½ over Chicago

Chicago comes into this game carrying plenty of enthusiasm surrounding the direction of its offense, and that enthusiasm has made the Bears an appealing team to back in the eyes of the public. We are not interested in chasing that narrative at an inflated number. Carolina has enough familiarity with its own system to enter this matchup with a clear understanding of what it wants to accomplish, and a large opening-week number gives the Panthers plenty of room to operate.

The biggest advantage for Carolina is that it does not need to win the game outright to cash this ticket. The Panthers can slow the pace, stay committed to the running game and make Chicago work for every possession. That approach also keeps the game from becoming the type of wide-open affair where the favorite's offensive potential becomes the dominant factor. Seven and a half points is a meaningful cushion in an opener.

Chicago may very well win the game, but that does not mean the Bears are going to cruise. We expect Carolina to stay competitive longer than the market anticipates and make Chicago sweat through the second half. Recomendation: Carolina +7.

Cleveland +8½ over Jacksonville

Jacksonville deserves credit for the way it finished the previous campaign, but that success also means the Jaguars are entering this season with considerably more attention attached to them. Cleveland, meanwhile, is being treated as though there is very little to like about its chances. That creates the kind of early-season discrepancy we like to examine closely. The Browns do not need to prove they are a better team than Jacksonville; they simply need to make this a football game.

Cleveland should have no shortage of motivation in an opener where expectations are almost entirely pointed toward the visiting favorite. The Browns have a coaching staff that understands the importance of playing a controlled game, and the home setting gives them an opportunity to establish a physical tone. Jacksonville has enough talent to win, but laying this many points on the road asks the Jaguars to separate themselves rather than merely survive.

We are willing to take the ugly side of this matchup. Cleveland does not have to look spectacular for this ticket to be successful, and that is exactly why the number appeals to us. Expect a competitive game that stays inside the inflated spread. Recomendation: Cleveland +8½

New Orleans +6½ over Detroit

Detroit enters the season with considerably more certainty surrounding its overall program, while New Orleans is being asked to prove that its new direction can translate onto the field. That makes the Saints an easy team for the market to dismiss. We see something different in an opener like this: a home underdog with very little pressure and a lot to gain from simply staying close.

New Orleans should be focused on keeping this game manageable rather than trying to match Detroit possession for possession. The Saints can use a conservative approach early, force the Lions to sustain drives and make the favorite prove that it can consistently create separation. Detroit's reputation gives it the better public profile, but reputation does not cash point-spread tickets.

The number is doing much of the work for us here. Detroit may leave with the victory, but we expect New Orleans to remain close enough to cover throughout. Recomendation: New Orleans +6½

Houston +1½ over Buffalo

Buffalo is one of those teams that routinely attracts support simply because bettors trust the quarterback and the overall organization. Houston does not need to match Buffalo's reputation to have value in this matchup. The Texans have built a team capable of playing a tough, physical game, and getting points at home makes this an especially attractive situation.

Houston should be able to dictate enough of the contest defensively to prevent Buffalo from turning this into the type of game it prefers. The Texans have the personnel and coaching structure to make the Bills work for every possession, while the home crowd should add pressure as the game progresses. The more this becomes a possession-by-possession battle, the more comfortable we are taking the points.

There is also no need to overcomplicate this wager. Houston is catching a small number at home against a team that is being asked to carry the reputation of the favorite. We believe the Texans can win this outright, making the plus points an added layer of protection. Recomendation: Houston +1½

New York Jets +1½ over Tennessee

Tennessee has generated plenty of optimism surrounding its new direction, while the Jets remain one of the easiest teams in football for bettors to criticize. That makes New York an obvious candidate to be undervalued in an opening-week matchup. We are not buying into the idea that everything will suddenly be fixed in New York, but we also do not believe this team deserves to be treated as a complete afterthought.

The Jets should have a very simple objective here: make the game physical, keep the margin tight and force Tennessee to win the fourth quarter. That type of game suits an underdog catching only a point and a half. Tennessee may have more positive momentum surrounding the organization, but preseason optimism has very little bearing once the game becomes a series of individual possessions.

This is a spot where we would rather fade the enthusiasm surrounding Tennessee than pay a premium for it. The Jets have enough ability to make this uncomfortable.

Recomendation: New York +1½

Tampa Bay +3½ over Cincinnati

Cincinnati is entering the season with expectations that are once again tied closely to its quarterback and offensive potential. That automatically makes the Bengals an appealing team to the public, particularly when they are playing at home. Tampa Bay offers a different kind of proposition. The Buccaneers are built to keep games competitive, and that becomes especially valuable when they are handed more than a field goal.

Cincinnati will want to establish its offense early, but Tampa Bay should have a clear plan for keeping the game under control. The Buccaneers can play patiently, avoid unnecessary risks and make the Bengals execute drive after drive. That puts pressure on the favorite because one stalled possession or one mistake can completely change the complexion of a relatively tight contest.

We do not need Tampa Bay to dominate Cincinnati. We need the Buccaneers to stay within striking distance, and that is a reasonable expectation with this number. Cincinnati may find a way to win, but Tampa Bay should be right there at the finish. Recomendation: the Buccaneers +3½

Miami +3½ over Las Vegas

Las Vegas is being asked to establish itself immediately under a new coaching regime, and that has made the Raiders an attractive side for bettors looking for a team heading in the right direction. Miami does not need to buy into that story. The Dolphins can make this game uncomfortable by leaning into their ability to control the pace and avoid giving Las Vegas repeated opportunities to create separation.

This matchup should be played on Miami's terms as much as possible. The Dolphins have a legitimate reason to keep the game compact, and a lower-scoring contest naturally puts greater value on every point being offered. Las Vegas would prefer to create momentum and make the home crowd part of the game, while Miami can benefit from turning the contest into a grind.

The market is asking Miami to prove itself on the road, but we are comfortable taking the cushion. The Dolphins have enough to keep this within one possession and potentially steal the outright victory. Recomendation: Miami +3½

Minnesota -1.5

Green Bay has traditionally carried plenty of weight in this rivalry, but Minnesota enters this matchup with a much more appealing overall setup. The Vikings have established a defensive identity that can make life difficult for opponents, and that becomes particularly important in an opener where neither offense should be expected to operate at peak efficiency immediately.

Minnesota also has the advantage of being able to attack this game without forcing anything. The Vikings can lean on their defense, control the tempo and make Green Bay operate patiently. That puts the burden on the Packers to create their own opportunities rather than waiting for Minnesota to make mistakes. We like the Vikings' ability to dictate the terms of the game.

Laying a small number at home is exactly where we want to be with Minnesota. This is not a price that requires a dominant performance; it simply asks the Vikings to win the game. Expect Minnesota to handle the rivalry pressure and come away with the victory. Recomendation: Minnesota -1½

Washington +5½ over Philadelphia

Philadelphia enters this matchup with the stronger reputation, and that reputation is justified. But reputation also influences point spreads, particularly when the opponent is coming off a disappointing campaign. Washington is being priced according to what went wrong rather than what can go right in a fresh season, and that creates an opportunity with more than a field goal in hand.

The Commanders should approach this game with a sense of urgency and a willingness to make Philadelphia work. Washington does not need to turn this into a shootout or control every possession. The priority should be avoiding the mistakes that allow a favorite to build an early cushion. Keep the game close into the second half and the five and a half points become increasingly valuable.

Philadelphia can certainly win, but we are not convinced the Eagles are going to run away from this opponent. Washington should be competitive enough to keep this inside one score and give us a comfortable position with the points. Recomendation: Washington +5½

Arizona +8½ over L.A. Chargers

The Cardinals enter the season with a new coaching voice and considerably less national attention than many of the teams on their schedule. That can work in their favor. New leadership brings uncertainty, but it also brings a fresh approach and an opportunity to catch an opponent before the market has a firm read on what Arizona will become.

The Chargers are laying a large number in a game where they will be expected to control the contest from the outset. Arizona does not have to answer that expectation. The Cardinals can play aggressively as an underdog, keep the game close and make Los Angeles prove that it can create the type of separation necessary to cover nearly nine points.

We are comfortable taking the unknown side with this much room. Arizona may not be ready to dominate the league, but that is not what this wager requires. Expect the Cardinals to compete for four quarters and stay well inside the number. Recomendation: Arizona +8½

New York Giants +2½ over Dallas

Dallas will receive plenty of attention in this matchup because of its offensive firepower and the names at the quarterback and receiver positions. The Giants, however, enter this game with a chance to make the contest about something entirely different. New York should want a physical, competitive game in which its defense can dictate the tempo and its offense is not asked to carry the entire burden.

The Giants also benefit from the psychological advantage of entering as the team receiving less respect. Dallas is being asked to win this game on the road, and the Cowboys cannot afford to assume that New York will simply fold under the pressure. A short number gives us plenty of room to back the home side while allowing the Giants to play aggressively.

This is not a situation where we need to predict an upset with great certainty. We simply believe New York is being undervalued. The Giants should keep this close enough to make the points meaningful and have a legitimate chance to win outright. Recomendation: New York +2½.

Kansas City -2½ over Denver

Kansas City may not carry quite the same aura it did at the height of its recent run, but that can actually make this an appealing time to back the Chiefs. The market is naturally looking for signs of decline after years of sustained success, while Kansas City continues to have the quarterback, coaching and organizational structure necessary to remain dangerous.

Denver deserves respect, particularly because its defense should make this a difficult game to navigate. But Kansas City does not need to win a shootout to cover this number. The Chiefs can play patiently, take what is available and rely on their ability to make the critical plays once the game reaches the later stages. That experience matters in a season opener.

We are not interested in declaring that Kansas City's best years are behind it before the season has even begun. The number is modest, the Chiefs are at home and the coaching advantage remains significant. Expect Kansas City to handle the Broncos and win by more than a field goal. Recomendation: Kansas City -2½