Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Las Vegas -2½ -110 over Arizona

8:00 PM EST. Welcome back, NFL football. Our philosophy hasn't changed in 25 years: fade the noise and fade the market when the market gives too much weight to information everyone already knows. The overwhelming majority of people who bet on sports lose, while sportsbooks continue to thrive. We don't want to think like the masses. We want to identify what the market is selling and look for opportunities to take the other side.

You're going to hear plenty about Arizona already having a preseason game under its belt while Las Vegas has yet to play one. You're also going to hear about the Cardinals putting up 30 points in last week's wild 33-30 loss to Carolina. We couldn't care less. That game was 0-0 after the first quarter, 17-17 at halftime, very low scoring in the third quarter and then completely opened up in the fourth. There were turnovers, mistakes, penalties and all the usual preseason chaos. Arizona was flagged for 80 yards. Taking anything meaningful from the final score of a preseason game like that is precisely the type of noise we're looking to fade.

Arizona is still Arizona. Las Vegas, however, isn't the same old Raiders. Klint Kubiak has arrived with an entirely new staff, a new system and a completely different atmosphere. Everything coming out of Raiders camp points toward a demanding, businesslike operation with accountability and urgency at the forefront. The players have responded positively to the way Kubiak is running camp, and after years of losing and organizational instability, establishing a different culture matters. This is a coaching staff with something to establish immediately, and winning—even in August—is one way to begin creating that expectation inside a locker room.

That's especially relevant in preseason football, where we're not handicapping games the same way we would in November. Motivation, preparation and what a new coaching staff wants to accomplish can matter more than conventional power ratings. Kubiak is trying to establish standards with a roster that has plenty of jobs and roles still being decided. There are young players fighting for positions, veterans adapting to a new regime and an organization desperate to change the feeling surrounding it. We expect Las Vegas to approach this game accordingly.

The market wants to give Arizona credit for already having played a game. Fine by us. If anything, that narrative helps keep this number below the key number of three and gives us the Raiders at a more favorable price. We're not interested in chasing Arizona's 30 points from last week or pretending an extra preseason game suddenly makes the Cardinals something they're not. We're buying the new energy, new coaching staff and changed attitude in Las Vegas before the market has much evidence to price it in.

Forget the noise. Forget that Arizona already has a game under its belt. That only helps our cause by giving us Las Vegas at a deflated number. 

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