Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Tampa Bay -3½ over Arizona

1:00 PM ET. Arizona has dropped eight of its last nine, and that lone win was more fluky than earned. Six of its last seven have sailed over the number because the Cardinals can’t stop anything, and their offense can only chase, never control. That’s not a profile you want catching anything fewer than a full score on the road.

Tampa’s situation looks bleak, but the market is overcorrecting to the wrong things. Yes, the Bucs just came off a brutal two-game swing through Buffalo and Los Angeles. Yes, Baker Mayfield’s MRI is looming. And yes, Teddy Bridgewater is a canyon-sized downgrade. All of that is baked in. What isn’t baked in is the reality that Tampa is still the toughest, most physically consistent team in the NFC South, and this is a scheduled exhale after two of the most difficult travel spots in the league.

Arizona’s résumé is window dressing. The Cardinals have covered five straight in the series, but that’s ancient history with completely different rosters, coaches, and schemes. Right now, they are losing games in the exact same fashion every week: fall behind early, give up explosive plays, let the defense collapse late. That’s not variance — that’s identity.

Tampa’s defense is the best unit in this game by a mile. Even if Bridgewater gets the nod, the Bucs don’t need fireworks. They need competence, field position, and patience — all of which align perfectly with how Todd Bowles wants to play. Arizona has lost the trenches in nine straight games. Tampa is not the team you want to face when you can’t block and can’t get off the field.

The market wants no part of this game, and neither do the talking heads, because of the quarterback uncertainty. That’s precisely why the favorite holds value. Tampa is the steadier team, in the better spot, with the better defense and the only offensive line capable of controlling the evening.

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