Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Philadelphia -7½ over Chicago

1:00 PM ET. Chicago is feeling pretty good about itself these days. Winners of four straight, sitting atop the NFC North, Caleb Williams looking the part, and a defense leading the league in takeaways. That’s all fine and dandy when Pittsburgh, Minnesota and Green Bay are on the menu. This week? This week they step up in class. Big time.

The Bears walk into Philadelphia thinking they’re catching the Eagles at the perfect time. Maybe they are. Maybe Philadelphia’s collapse in Dallas — a meltdown so bad it should be archived in the Smithsonian — has the market convinced the sky is falling. That’s precisely why this number is cheap. Philadelphia picked the worst possible time to play their worst half of football in two years. They blew it. They know it. And now they get four days to marinate in every “What’s wrong with the Eagles?” headline before responding in front of a national audience.That’s the spot we live for.

Chicago’s defense leads the NFL in takeaways, but they’ve been living off overthrows, tipped balls and quarterbacks gifting them possessions. Now they face Jalen Hurts — a guy who rarely turns it over, rarely panics, and rarely plays two sloppy games in a row. Hurts is working behind a beat-up line, but he still engineered three touchdowns last week and nearly dragged that team out of the grave. If not for a defense that completely imploded, that game looks very different.

Chicago is being priced like a team that belongs. They don’t. Their eight wins came against a schedule that reads like a preseason slate. Their defense is missing half its linebacking corps, their healthiest corner is coming off IR, and they were one blown coverage away from losing to the Steelers. We’ll happily fade the “8-3” fantasy label. Anyone convinced this is a top-tier team hasn’t watched the Bears sustain a drive without Williams playing backyard football.

As for the Eagles, this is as get-right as it gets. Philadelphia’s offense still moves the ball, still creates mismatches everywhere, and still forces defenses into bad decisions. Chicago’s secondary has lived off errant rookies and backup quarterbacks — not off covering A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith in space. If Smith is limited or out, this turns into the A.J. Brown show. If he plays, it’s a track meet. Either way, the Bears don’t have the bodies to survive four quarters here.

There’s also the small matter of Chicago being a dome-built team playing outdoors on a short week, in a hostile environment, against a mad football team. That’s not just a step up — that’s a leap into traffic.

Philadelphia blew a 21-point lead last week. They will not be gentle here. They will not sit back. This is a run-it-up, send-a-message, restore-order type spot. If the Eagles get up early, they’ll bury Chicago and keep digging.

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