Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Kansas City -3.5 over Dallas

4:30 PM ET. The Cowboys are getting priced like a contender because they erased a 21-point deficit against Philadelphia last week. Good for them. It was a nice little rally. It was also the type of emotional, season-saving comeback that teams rarely duplicate on a short week. Now they get four days of “Cowboys are back!” hype, walk into a Thursday slot where they’ve already won three straight, and face a Chiefs team that has quietly been waiting to punch back after sleepwalking through the first half of the season.

Kansas City hasn’t been pretty, but they’ve been purposeful. They knew the schedule tightened. They knew a late push was coming. And after surviving the Colts, they head to Dallas in what is easily their most focused spot of the year. Mahomes hasn’t had a meaningful game at Jerry World since college, and he admitted he’s got 50 friends and family in attendance. That’s not a distraction — that’s jet fuel.

Dallas gets the fanfare. Kansas City gets the matchup edge. The Cowboys’ offense looks explosive on the surface, but dig deeper and it becomes matchup-dependent. They feast on secondaries that can’t cover or generate pressure. The Chiefs do both. Chris Jones vs. a rookie left tackle is the single biggest mismatch on the board this week. Prescott just rallied against the Eagles — great. Now he gets Spagnuolo disguised looks with Jones breathing down his neck every snap. Reality check incoming.

While everyone obsesses over Kansas City’s record, nobody seems to notice they just got Isiah Pacheco back. Kansas City’s offense sputters without him because everything they do off play-action and misdirection depends on linebackers having to honor the run. With Pacheco healthy, the Chiefs’ script looks entirely different — and Mahomes no longer has to be a one-man bailout machine.

Meanwhile, Kansas City has quietly owned these kinds of situational spots for a decade under Reid. Short week? Holiday? Heavy attention? Everyone ready to bury them? That’s when the Chiefs turn into the Chiefs.

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