Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Green Bay +135 over Detroit

1:00 PM ET. The market insists Detroit is the better side, but everything underneath says this number is inflated — badly. The Lions have the flashy offense, the highlight-reel rookie, the Thanksgiving spotlight and the reputation bump that comes with scoring a pile of points. Green Bay, meanwhile, has none of the sizzle and all of the substance. That’s where value is born.

Detroit needed a miracle to beat the Giants. They were dead in the water, down two scores in the fourth, and got bailed out by a 264-yard supernova game from Jahmyr Gibbs and a couple bounces that don’t repeat. A comeback like that reads well in the standings but reveals something different: the Lions are leaking oil. They’ve lost key bodies at every level, their secondary is shredded, their offensive line is a MASH unit, and now they’re asked to lay a price against the most disciplined defense in the NFC that already solved them once.

Green Bay didn’t just beat Detroit in Week 1 — they held them to 246 yards, shut down the explosive plays, and out-physicaled them at the point of attack. That wasn’t noise. That’s exactly how the Packers have played all month. Their defense is suffocating, allowing fewer points than everyone in the conference except the 49ers. They just held Minnesota to 145 total yards. Five sacks. Three turnovers. Dominated every meaningful snap. These guys aren’t sneaking up on anyone — they’re legitimately elite on that side of the ball

Everyone wants to talk about Jordan Love’s shoulder. Fine. But this isn’t a yardage handicap — it’s a game-flow handicap. Love doesn’t need to throw for 300 to beat this version of Detroit. He needs to avoid mistakes and let his defense strangle a Lions attack that has been living dangerously for weeks. And with Emanuel Wilson running wild last week and Jacobs possibly available, Green Bay’s ground game might finally be trending up at the perfect time.

Thanksgiving in Detroit is supposed to be a celebration, but the Lions have spent nearly a decade using this day to derail their own seasons. They snapped the streak last year… but they’re right back in that familiar spot: overvalued, overhyped, over-injured, and priced like a contender when they’re playing like a fringe wild-card hopeful.

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