Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Las Vegas --3½ over Cleveland

4:25 PM ET. This line is telling you everything you need to know. The Raiders are laying more than a field goal with a 1–8 stretch in their rearview mirror, and the market still won’t give Cleveland a single ounce of respect — and for good reason. This isn’t the Browns. This is a scout-team offense masquerading as an NFL roster.

Cleveland is cooked at the most important position on the field. Dillon Gabriel exited with a concussion, which forced Shedeur Sanders into the lineup cold, and it showed. Sixteen attempts, four completions, 47 yards, one pick — that’s not a quarterback; that’s a fire drill. Sanders isn’t stepping into Cleveland’s offense this week. He’s stepping into a huddle where his teammates just admitted they’ve never even heard him call a play before. For two months he has run other teams’ plays on the scout team. Now the Browns are asking him to operate a live offense on the road? It’s malpractice.

The Browns are 1–6 straight-up and 2–5 against the number in their last seven. Every week the defense gets hung out to dry because the offense can’t sustain drives, and now it gets worse. Sanders will take sacks, kill possessions, and create short fields. Cleveland has played four straight overs, but that was with Gabriel providing at least a pulse. This is a completely different animal.

As for Vegas, ignore the record. This is the first sane matchup they’ve seen in weeks. Dallas torched them on Monday night, but that says more about the Cowboys’ talent than anything structural on the Raiders’ side. The Raiders’ losses have come against teams that can score in bunches. Cleveland cannot. The Raiders’ last five meetings in this matchup? All wins. Not because Vegas is world-beaters, but because the Browns have been stuck in quarterback purgatory for years — and this is their lowest point yet.

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