Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Arizona +115 over Jacksonville

4:05 PM ET. The market has once again fallen in love with Jacksonville after last week’s blowout win over the Chargers. The Jags looked terrific on paper—never punted, produced 30 first downs, and held L.A. to a miserable 3.0 yards per play but context matters. The Chargers are completely banged up, have been out of sync for weeks, and that performance says far more about Los Angeles than it does about Jacksonville. This is the same Jaguars team that has shown a Jekyll-and-Hyde identity all season, following every step forward with two steps back. Now, after one flattering win, the market is ready to trust them on the road as a favorite? No thanks.

Jacksonville has played four road games this season and none of those performances inspire confidence. They lost to Cincinnati. They went to San Francisco and “won” 26–21, but that result was one of the most misleading final scores of the season. The 49ers turned the ball over four times and Trevor Lawrence threw for only 174 yards—yet the Jags still barely survived. Their other road efforts include a one-point overtime escape against the weak Raiders and a 36-point defensive meltdown in a loss to Houston. In four road games, Jacksonville is 2–2 with one fluke win, one gift-wrapped win, and two outright failures. Now they travel again, this time laying points against an undervalued opponent they have no business spotting a price to.

Meanwhile, Arizona remains one of the most misleading 3–7 teams in the league. They’re competitive every week but continue to lose close games that could have swung the season in a completely different direction. Here is their last eight-game stretch:

vs Panthers — W 27–22

@ 49ers — L 16–15

vs Seahawks — L 23–20

vs Titans — L 22–21

@ Colts — L 31–27

vs Packers — L 27–23

@ Cowboys — W 27–17

@ Seahawks — L 44–22

vs 49ers — L 41–22

Outside of the two divisional rematches against Seattle and San Francisco—teams that know Arizona’s schemes by heart—the Cardinals have lost by 1, 2, 3, and 4 points, and they also beat Dallas by 10. With just a couple of bounces going their way, Arizona could realistically be 8–2 instead of 3–7.

Jacoby Brissett has also changed the identity of this offense. Last week against the 49ers, Brissett set the NFL single-game record with 47 completions, throwing for 452 yards and two touchdowns. Yes, much of that production came in catch-up mode, but it also demonstrated two important things:

Arizona’s coaching staff trusts Brissett to run the offense at full throttle, and this passing attack is live and dangerous, regardless of the opponent.

Defensively, the Cardinals are depleted and that’s not a secret—five of their last six games have gone over the number and their opponents have averaged 32 points during that stretch but that also creates value. A flawed defense makes Arizona look less attractive to the betting public, but it simultaneously forces the Cardinals to play faster, more aggressive, and more efficient offensively. Brissett’s poise, along with Marvin Harrison Jr.’s potential return, gives Arizona legitimate scoring capability every possession.

Jacksonville, on the other hand, continues to get priced like a team they simply are not. Trevor Lawrence has thrown for 153 and 158 yards in his last two games and consistently struggles to reach even 180 passing yards. This is not a quarterback you want to trust as a road favorite, especially against a team that has been in every non-divisional game this year.

The Jaguars are being priced based on last week’s highlight performance, not on their true body of work. This is a false favorite created entirely by market overreaction. Arizona is undervalued, competitive, dangerous, and playing at home catching a misleading price. If you make one wager this week, this should be it.

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