Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

New York Giants +13 over Detroit

1:00 PM ET. Double-digit points in the NFL aren’t to be handed out lightly, and yet here we are again with the Giants catching an inflated number because Detroit is still being priced like last year’s version of itself. That team doesn’t exist right now. This Lions offense is sputtering, inconsistent, and looking more mortal by the week. If you saw Jared Goff on Sunday night, you saw a quarterback who was rattled early and never recovered — two completions in a stretch of twenty attempts is not a slump; it’s a red flag flapping in the wind. This is not a team you lay nearly two touchdowns with.

New York, meanwhile, keeps hanging around. The wins aren’t coming, but the covers are: four of the last six, all as an underdog, all as a team left for dead by the market. And the reason is simple: the Giants compete. They play hard. They hit. They scrap for every yard. And with Jameis Winston likely getting another start, we’re not downgrading them at all. In fact, we’d rather roll with Winston here. He was efficient in the cold and wind against Green Bay — no panic, no meltdown, just steady production and a rushing TD for good measure. If he can give the Giants 4.9 yards per play and 22 first downs again, Big Blue is absolutely live to stay inside this number.

Detroit has spent the last month alternating wins and losses, and when they lose, it’s because their passing game evaporates. This isn’t last year’s smooth, efficient machine — this is a team that has to fight for every positive play, and giving a team like that a -13 tag is asking for trouble. The Lions’ secondary still can’t cover, their pass rush disappears for long stretches, and their offense goes entire quarters without looking functional. That’s not the profile of a bully.

The Giants don’t need to win. They don’t even need to be good. They just need to be themselves — messy, stubborn, and surprisingly efficient with Winston running the show. Detroit is overpriced and overvalued, and New York is finding ways to land inside big spreads because they don’t quit. That’s all we need here.

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