Posted Friday at 4:00pm EST and odds are subject to change.

NFL Week: 12

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criteria we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday. We’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST

Sunday, November 23

NFL Week 12

New York Jets +13½ over Baltimore

1:00 PM ET. The market loves Baltimore right now because the standings look pretty and the scoreboard keeps spitting out wins, but what the market isn’t accounting for is how unimpressive the Ravens’ offense has looked since Lamar tweaked that hamstring. He’s playing, sure — but he’s not moving, and Baltimore without Lamar’s legs is Baltimore stripped of half its identity. The numbers confirm it: completion rate down nearly 10 percent since the injury, yards per rush sliced in half, and a whole lot of throws that look like they’re coming from a guy who’s protecting himself. That doesn’t scream “cover two touchdowns.”

New York, meanwhile, stays ugly and somehow stays inside the number more often than not. Four covers in the last five despite dreadful offensive metrics, quarterback changes, and a point distribution that often requires a calculator to decipher. But covering big spreads is about one thing: staying upright and forcing your opponent to string long drives together. The Jets do that extremely well. Their defense still plays with bite, still chases everything, still makes you work. And they’re coming in with extended rest, a coaching staff that is excellent with extra prep, and a quarterback change that—while uninspiring on paper—at least gives them a baseline of competence.

Tyrod Taylor isn’t bringing fireworks, but he’s bringing control. And control is precisely what you want when you’re taking almost two touchdowns. He avoids the catastrophic play. He eats sacks instead of throwing interceptions. He punts instead of handing out short fields. Those aren’t glamorous traits, but they are exactly how big underdogs stay big underdogs who cash tickets.

Baltimore’s defense is healthy and nasty, but they also just ran through a stretch of three straight road games. Now they return home to face a Jets team that lives in the mud, slows games down, and drags everyone into a slopfest. That’s exactly how you chew clock, reduce possessions, and make two plus TDs look like gold.

The Jets don’t need to score 24. They might not need to score 17. They just need to show up with a pulse while Lamar continues to look like a guy playing at 60 percent. And with this defense and a veteran game-manager at quarterback, we’re more than happy to take a number that assumes Baltimore’s offense is something it hasn’t been for weeks. Recommendation: NY Jets +13½

Tennessee +13 over Seattle

1:00 PM ET. Seattle can dress that 7-2 run up all they want, but last week told us everything about who the Seahawks really are. Sam Darnold threw four interceptions, gift-wrapped short fields all afternoon, and the Rams still produced exactly one legitimate touchdown drive. When you turn the ball over like it’s tradition and still have a shot to win it at the end, that’s not “dominant football” — that’s smoke, mirrors, and a defense doing the heavy lifting. Great for Pete Carroll’s blood pressure, not so great if you’re being asked to spot nearly two touchdowns on the road.

That’s the rub. Seattle may be 5-0 straight-up and ATS away from home, but each of those wins came in controlled, neutral scripts. They weren’t laying lumber; they were surviving. Now the market wants them to show up in someone else’s building and win by two scores plus the hook? That’s inflation. That’s the hype-tax. That’s what happens when the public sees a shiny record and forgets the games were decided by razor blades.

Tennessee, meanwhile, looks like a tire fire on offense but has quietly covered two straight — their first multi-cover stretch in two seasons. Rookie QB Cam Ward is a roller coaster, but he’s also unpredictable, and unpredictable is precisely what you want when grabbing double digits. The Titans’ defense held Houston to 16 last week and did everything except walk the ball into the end zone themselves. For a team missing Calvin Ridley (seven minutes of action before the broken leg), relying on a rookie QB, and getting 25 rushing yards out of Pollard and Spears combined… they were still one drive away from winning outright.

This team scraps. They ugly up games. They force you to execute long fields. And they drag everything into the mud. That’s Seattle’s worst-case scenario in a game where they’re supposed to “just show up and cover.”

The Seahawks’ defense is good, but the offense is running on uneven footing. You don’t lay -13 on the road with a quarterback coming off a 4-INT meltdown and an offense that has produced more questions than answers all year. You don’t back a bloated favorite that wins with field goals and defense, not explosiveness. This number is simply too rich. Recommendation: Tennessee +13

Kansas City -3½ over Indianapolis

1:00 PM ET. This number is short and the market is daring you to do the obvious thing: take the Colts with the hook after a bye week against a Chiefs team coming off two straight losses. Resist the bait. There’s a reason this line hasn’t budged — it’s Kansas City or nothing.

Indianapolis walks in with the shiny angle: two straight outright wins over the Chiefs, a rested roster, and a Jonathan Taylor glow-up after he detonated Atlanta for 244 yards before the bye. Colts backers will point to that and convince themselves the formula is repeatable. It isn’t. That performance was a one-off against one of the softest fronts in football. Kansas City’s run defense isn’t elite, but it’s not Atlanta-level charitable either, and you’re not beating Patrick Mahomes in Arrowhead by trying to shorten the game and hide Daniel Jones.

That’s the real story here: Jones. After a couple of early-season illusions, he turned right back into the pumpkin we know — seven sacks or three interceptions, pick your week. The bye may settle him down, but it doesn’t suddenly give him pocket awareness or the ability to play from behind. If Indy wants to win, they must play from in front, on script, on the ground. The odds of them staying in that lane for four quarters in Arrowhead are slim.

Meanwhile, Kansas City’s offense looks broken on the surface, which is exactly why this number is cheap. The Chiefs just endured Buffalo and Denver on the road, without Pacheco, with receivers who can’t separate, and still had chances late in both games. Everyone sees “five straight unders” and assumes the Chiefs aren’t dangerous. That’s how false narratives get built. The truth is Mahomes has quietly reattached himself to Travis Kelce, who has cleared his receiving yard prop in seven straight games. Kansas City is moving the ball — they’re just stalling in the red zone. That’s fixable.

Indianapolis is a step down in class after Buffalo and Denver on the road. A big step down. And now they’re being asked to win a third straight against Mahomes? No chance. The Colts’ defense bleeds explosive passing plays and ranks bottom third in EPA allowed on early downs. This is a get-right spot for the Chiefs’ offense, and historically, they cash those tickets at home.

Atlanta +2 over New Orleans

4:25 PM ET. The market wants you to believe the Saints are fixed because they beat Carolina and had a week off to “self-scout.” That’s cute, but it’s also nonsense. New Orleans enters this one with a rookie QB who hasn’t been stress-tested, a play-caller still searching for an identity, and an offense that lives exclusively on training-wheels gameplans.

Atlanta looks like a mess on the surface, and the surface is exactly where bad numbers are born. Five straight losses, injuries piling up, and Kirk Cousins being forced into action earlier than expected. That’s the version of the Falcons the market is reacting to — the panic version. But we’re buying a team whose results have been buried under chaos, timing issues, and late-game collapses. None of those things are permanent. They stabilize with reps. They stabilize with familiarity. And they stabilize at home, where this franchise traditionally plays its best football.

Cousins now gets a full week repping as the starter instead of parachuting into games mid-situation. The Falcons’ offense will look more organized than anything we’ve seen during this skid, and the brief-passing structure Atlanta used early in the season fits Cousins’ strengths perfectly. Even without Drake London, this offense can stay on schedule — especially against a Saints defense that leaks explosive plays every time it faces a QB who processes quickly and gets the ball out.

New Orleans is being priced as if the bye week erased all their structural issues. It didn’t. The Saints are still a low-ceiling offense built on screens, slants, and prayers. Tyler Shough looked fine against Carolina, but that’s not a benchmark — that’s a scrimmage. Now he walks into a hostile road dome for a divisional game with actual stakes. Moore’s scheme will protect him for a while, but eventually you need your quarterback to make throws outside the script. That’s where the cracks appear. Recommendation: Atlanta +2