Posted at 1:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Tampa Bay +6 over Buffalo

1:00 PM ET. This number feels like it was hung on reputation, not reality. Buffalo hasn’t been a trustworthy home favorite for well over a year, and the market keeps pretending the Bills are still the bully they were in 2021. They’re not. Since October 2023, Buffalo is 9-12 ATS as a home favorite, and 0-3 in that role this season. When the Bills are priced as comfortable chalk, they almost never reward you. The last meeting between these two came in October 2023, when Tampa walked into Orchard Park as a double-digit dog and stayed well within the number in a 24-18 loss. That game was a preview of what’s happening now: Tampa Bay tends to make teams uncomfortable, and Buffalo tends to leave the back door open. Both teams are coming off sloppy losses in the Sunshine State — Buffalo got handled by Miami and Tampa face-planted at home against New England. The difference is that Tampa’s profile is stable while Buffalo’s is not. The Bills have been baffling analysts all season with their insistence on running the ball almost half the time. Buffalo is running it on 49% of snaps — second-most in the NFL. You have Josh Allen, the league’s most dangerous off-script quarterback, and somehow you’re calling plays like you’re protecting Zach Wilson. It gets worse. Dalton Kincaid, arguably their most important matchup weapon, is out for multiple weeks. Without him, Buffalo is left throwing to guys who don’t threaten defenses vertically. That’s a huge problem against a Tampa Bay defense that sits No. 1 in rushing success rate allowed. If the Bills want to run early-down handoffs into a wall, Todd Bowles will happily oblige. The total trending under only strengthens the underdog. Four of Buffalo’s last five have stayed under, and four of Tampa’s last five road games have stayed under. Lower total → higher value on the dog. This is the textbook setup. Baker Mayfield will take some risks — that’s baked into the price — but as long as he’s not gifting Buffalo extra possessions, the Bucs are live here. Buffalo plays slow, plays conservative, and hasn’t put anyone away at home in months.

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