Posted at 1:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Minnesota -3 over Chicago

1:00 PM ET. If you’re only box-score shopping, Chicago looks like a team on the rise. Six wins in seven games, a young quarterback settling in, late-game heroics, good vibes everywhere. That’s the brochure version. The fine print — the stuff the market keeps ignoring — tells a very different story.

Minnesota has won eight of the last nine meetings, including the 27–24 win at Soldier Field to open the season. That was with J.J. McCarthy making his first NFL start in a hostile environment. Now he’s more seasoned, more stable, and playing behind a staff that’s quietly been elite at self-scouting after a bye… and the Vikings had theirs just three weeks ago. Fresh legs in November are gold.

Chicago’s 6–3 record is built on the NFL equivalent of optical illusions. They were down 20–10 to the Giants before Jaxson Dart was knocked out of the game. They survived Cincinnati only because they hit a 58-yard prayer with 20 seconds left. They beat Washington on a walk-off. They needed a last-minute blocked field goal to escape Vegas. That is not sustainable football — it’s a Jenga tower waiting for one wrong pull.

The Bears still carry a negative point differential, which is one of the market’s biggest red flags for regression. Against any team with a pulse, they’ve been flattened — losing their three “step-up” games by an average of 16 points. That’s who they are when the music stops.

Minnesota, meanwhile, has been stuck in dome-ball for a month. They haven’t taken a snap in real cold weather since mid-September, so they come into this with fresh legs, not frozen ones. Chicago has been slugging through November football; the Vikings are stepping into it with healthier bodies and a defense far better at containing non-mobile QBs than the highlight reels suggest.

This is the ideal “pull the curtain back” spot — buy the undervalued favorite, sell the overinflated underdog coming off a month of fortunate bounces.

Chicago’s record says contender.

Chicago’s profile says pretender.

Minnesota has been waiting to punch someone in the mouth, and the Bears’ run of magic-bean outcomes is ripe to collapse under its own luck.

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