Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Saquon Barkley – 20+ Rushing Attempts (+160) - Bet365

8:20 PM ET. Here’s where we press our edge. The standard over 17.5 attempts is fair, but the real value lives in the escalator — Barkley to hit 20 carries or more at +160. It’s inflated, it’s uncomfortable, and it’s where the true number beats the market.

The Packers’ defensive philosophy practically hands teams the script: two-high safety shells, light boxes, and a steady invitation to run. They dare you to be patient — and the Eagles can be. When games stay close, Philadelphia leans into a run-heavy rhythm. That neutral game script (within one score either way) keeps the ball in Barkley’s hands, not Hurts’. The QB sneaks and keepers don’t cannibalize volume; they complement it in short-yardage spots. Between the 20s, Barkley is the offense.

We’re projecting 32–38 total rushes for Philly, and Barkley’s slice sits around 60–70%. That’s a median outcome of 21 carries, not 17 or 18. The books are still pricing him as if he’s a volatile workload back, when in reality, his usage has been remarkably steady in neutral games.

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