Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Arizona +7 over Seattle

1:00 PM ET. Seattle has been winning games, but the market keeps pricing them like they’re some kind of NFC powerhouse. They’re not. The Seahawks have been flirting with regression for weeks, escaping tight games with late scores, turnovers, or favorable bounces. Now they’re spotting nearly a full touchdown in a divisional matchup against a Cardinals team that’s quietly been one of the better underdog bets in football.

Seattle’s run of nine wins in ten tries over Arizona looks dominant on paper, but dig deeper and the cracks show. The Seahawks haven’t covered consistently at home — in fact, they’re 7-18-1 ATS at Lumen Field since November 2022. That’s a massive sample that tells you what the market refuses to acknowledge: Seattle is consistently overpriced in their own building.

Arizona has covered three straight, and the effort level remains outstanding despite a losing record. Jacoby Brissett has stepped in for Kyler Murray and stabilized everything. He doesn’t force throws, protects the football, and keeps drives alive. The Cardinals play hard, stay within the game script, and continue to reward bettors willing to hold their nose and take points with them.

Seattle’s addition of Rashid Shaheed gives them another weapon, but this offense still has stretches of inconsistency. They’ll look dominant for a quarter, then go quiet for two. It’s the same up-and-down profile we’ve seen for months. The Seahawks are winning, but they’re not dominating — and that matters when you’re being asked to cover a number this big against a team that refuses to go away.

The Cardinals’ defense has been opportunistic and tougher than expected against the run. Combine that with Brissett’s veteran calm and the fact that Arizona’s locker room clearly hasn’t quit, and we’re getting significant value here. Seattle may well win again, but they haven’t earned this kind of price tag.

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