Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

New Orleans +205 over Carolina

1:00 PM ET. The market is telling us Carolina is suddenly trustworthy — a team with a winning record laying its biggest number in four years. That’s a dangerous assumption to make. Carolina has been playing with effort, sure, but this isn’t a team built to spot more than a field goal to anyone.

The Panthers are catching attention after an upset win in Green Bay, but that was more about the Packers’ incompetence than Carolina’s excellence. Now they return home in the rare role of favorite, something they’ve handled poorly for years. Since 2021, Carolina has been favored by four points or more just twice — they lost both outright. The Panthers have gone 7-2 ATS at home since last November, but most of those were in the underdog role, which is a much different psychological ask than protecting a number.

Meanwhile, New Orleans is getting buried by perception. The Saints have lost three straight by double digits, and their stock can’t be any lower. That’s typically where value hides. They outgained Carolina by 180+ yards in both meetings last season, yet only managed a split. The Saints still play hard under Kellen Moore, and rookie QB Tyler Shough should be more comfortable in his second start after being thrown to the wolves against a rested Rams defense off a bye.

The Saints traded away some familiar names, but they didn’t trade away effort. Carolina’s offensive line is banged up, their lead back might not go, and Bryce Young remains a game manager in an offense that rarely stretches the field. The Panthers have been living off turnovers and short fields; that’s not sustainable as a significant chalk.

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