Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Kansas City -3½ over Jacksonville

EverBank Stadium – Jacksonville, FL

8:15 PM ER. The Jags are 3-1 and flying high under new head coach Liam Coen. They just went into San Francisco and handed the 49ers their first loss of the year, and now the market has decided that they belong in the same tier as Kansas City. That’s the problem.

Jacksonville’s offense has been chewing up yards on the ground, ranking fourth in the league at 144 per game, with Travis Etienne averaging over six yards per carry. They’ve also led the league in takeaways through four weeks. Those two things have hidden what’s still a very limited passing attack and a defense that has benefited almost entirely from variance. Turnover luck doesn’t sustain, and neither does a .750 winning clip when your quarterback is throwing for 170 yards a game.

The Chiefs opened the season 0-2 and were written off by the peanut gallery for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era. We know how that movie ends. Kansas City has since looked like themselves again, scoring 37 last week while spreading the ball to four different receivers. The offense finally clicked, the offensive line held up, and the rhythm was back. They were crisp, efficient, and aggressive — three words that haven’t described Jacksonville once this year.

The Jags have been winning with defense and balance, but you don’t balance your way past Mahomes. You need to land punches, and this roster doesn’t have that gear. The defense’s gaudy takeaway numbers are masking a unit that still gives up yards in chunks, particularly over the middle where Kansas City excels. When those bounces stop landing in their lap, the regression hits hard.

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