Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

San Francisco +8½ over LA Rams

8:20 PM ET. The Rams are 3-1, they’ve taken three straight off this rival, and Matthew Stafford is coming off a 375-yard, comeback-filled Sunday that has everyone gushing over Puka Nacua again. That’s the sell. That’s the hook. Now the Rams are inflated chalk against a 49ers team missing key names, and the market is lining up to fade San Francisco. That's where we step in.

San Francisco will be without Brock Purdy again, with Mac Jones under center. That’s driving most of this number. Yet Jones is not stepping in off the street — he already has two starts this season, he’s healthy again, and the guy has shown flashes when he isn’t buried under expectation. The market has decided this is an automatic downgrade, when in reality it’s already baked into the price.

Yes, Nick Bosa’s absence is significant. There’s no sugarcoating it. The defense looked shaky against Jacksonville last week, and losing their premier pass rusher creates a void. Still, this isn’t about what San Francisco is missing. It’s about what we’re being offered to fade it. A team priced like it’s missing its entire core instead of two stars.

Meanwhile, the Rams are coming off a dramatic win over the Colts in a spot that required every ounce of Stafford magic to pull out. Now, on a short turnaround, they’re being asked to win comfortably against a physical division rival they know will show up to scrap. That’s a letdown recipe, not a premium one.

San Francisco is banged up, shorthanded at wideout, and perceived as vulnerable. That’s exactly why we want them. This is a divisional game where effort and variance can swing wildly, and we’re getting more than a full touchdown on a short week. Overlay.

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