Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

N.Y. JETS +125 over Miami

Hard Rock Stadium - Miami FL

8:15 PM ET. The market doesn’t want the Jets. New York is 0-3, and the only thing most bettors see is a team that can’t finish. They blew a 15-point lead against Pittsburgh in Week 1. They lost on a walk-off field goal in Tampa last week. That’s the résumé. That’s what burns tickets.

Meanwhile, Miami was riding a four-game win streak in this divisional rivalry before stumbling in Week 18. They’ve been priced as the more stable program ever since. Even now, the Dolphins are a road favorite despite ranking dead last in EPA per play allowed, success rate allowed, and passing success rate allowed. The defense is getting cooked on every metric that matters.

The market shrugs, though, because it’s easier to back Miami than a winless Jets team. That’s where we step in.

With Justin Fields healthy, New York has a profile that specifically stresses the Dolphins’ biggest weakness: mobile quarterbacks. Josh Allen carved them up last week on the ground. Daniel Jones ran for two TDs in Week 1. The Colts had success with similar concepts. Fields can do all of that and more.

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