Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, UT

Stream: ABC

BYU +4½ -110 over Utah

12:00 PM EST. The Holy War has never looked like this. First time ever, both of them walk in ranked in the top ten, Utah unbeaten at No. 3, BYU 7-1 at No. 9, and the loser is probably done. One more loss and BYU is out of the top twelve; Utah's whole season is a one-game-at-a-time walk to the playoff. It's an in-state Holy War that has every LDS member from Mitt Romney to Marie Osmond paying attention, and for once the hype is actually justified. Utah is doing all of this with a first-year head coach in Morgan Scalley, who took over for a legend, and BYU is doing it with a quarterback wearing the whole offense on his back. Somebody's season takes a real hit on Saturday, and it's a 10 o'clock local kickoff, which is nobody's idea of a Holy War start time.

The whole week has been one question, and it's the right one: does LJ Martin play? BYU's best back went down with an ankle injury against TCU a month ago and hasn't played since, and the ground game has barely moved without him. They got almost nothing on the ground against Arizona State last week. He practiced this week and he's trending toward dressing, but even if he suits up he won't be 100 percent and he'll be limited. So here's the thing: the case for BYU doesn't need him at full strength. They've won all month without him. Bear Bachmeier has been throwing it when he's had to, and he put together a 95-yard scoring drive in the fourth quarter last week when they were clinging to a lead. And the defense is the part nobody wants to talk about, which is usually a good sign.

That defense is the reason Utah's bread and butter might not work on Saturday. BYU is stingy against the run, the kind of front that makes a team one-dimensional in a hurry, and Utah's whole offense runs through the ground game and Devon Dampier's legs. Dampier pulled the Houston game out of the fire a couple of weeks ago, but he's been loose with the ball lately, and BYU's defense is exactly the kind that turns a loose ball into points. And Utah's lead back, Wayshawn Parker, sat out the second half at Cincinnati with a quad contusion. The Utes say it was precautionary with a big lead, but he's been taking a pounding all year and this is the biggest game of his season. If Utah can't run it efficiently, Dampier has to win it through the air against a defense that doesn't give up much. That's a lot to ask.

And then there's the number. Four and a half. Utah is unbeaten, ranked third in the country, playing at home, and getting all the respect that comes with it. But BYU is ranked ninth, has lost just once, and has been finding ways to win despite missing its best running back. There's a difference between being the better-ranked team and being worth four and a half points against a rival that knows you inside and out. Utah's perfect record and lofty ranking have helped inflate this price, and that's where the opportunity lies. BYU has the defense, the quarterback, and the experience in tight games to go into Salt Lake City and win this thing outright. The four and a half points are simply an added cushion on a team that is more than capable of winning the football game.

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