Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Hornet Stadium, Sacramento, CA

Stream:ESPN+

Sacramento St. +15½ +100 over Ohio

10:00 PM EST. Ohio flew 2,500 miles to play football at ten o'clock at night Eastern time. The Bobcats' body clocks will be filing a formal complaint by the second quarter. And what exactly are they laying fifteen and a half with? An offense ranked 128th in passing at 158 yards a game. One-dimensional road favorites don't cover big numbers — when the run game hits a wall, there's no plan B, just punts. Sacramento State is 1-5 and nobody's selling you a fairy tale, but 15.5 points is an awful lot to ask of a team that can't throw.

It's also Homecoming at Hornet Stadium — the biggest night of Sacramento State's inaugural FBS season, and the building will be rocking for a program that waited forever for a stage like this. Ohio is 0-1 against the spread as a favorite of 14.5 or more; they've been in this exact spot before and didn't get there. The Hornets have been outscored badly in conference play (30.3 to 11.0 on average), but blowouts require the favorite to keep scoring, and Ohio averages 27.5 a game. Do the subtraction: if Ohio scores its usual 27-ish, Sacramento State needs two touchdowns to cover. That's not a miracle. That's a pulse.

The honest counter, because 1-5 teams don't get the benefit of the doubt: Carson Conklin has thrown 46 passes this season without a single touchdown, which is almost impressive in its own way. The Hornets just got throttled 38-10 by Bowling Green, their second-quarter defense ranks 137th in the country, and Ohio has won three straight while allowing 31 points combined. The sharp math projects an 18-point margin, and nobody would be shocked if this is over by halftime. But ten o'clock Eastern kickoffs after cross-country flights are where flat favorites go to sleepwalk, and double-digit dogs in sleepy late games have a way of hanging around. Hornets to keep it respectable. Let's race to the window for this cash advance!

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