Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Doyt L. Perry Stadium, Bowling Green, OH

Stream:ESPN+

Ball State +6½ -110 over Bowling Green

12:00 PM EST.  Kickoff on Family Weekend — the single most depressing time slot in college football, where dreams go to die in front of a half-asleep crowd and a tuba section. Bowling Green is 2-4 and being asked to lay 6.5 points because they beat Miami (OH) and Sacramento State. Meanwhile Ball State just hung 360 yards and 22 first downs on Northwestern — their best road offensive output of the season — in a game that looked a lot closer than 45-14. In a noon MAC slugfest with a total in the mid-40s, six and a half points is a king's ransom. Take them.

The Cardinals have real pieces on offense. Keldric Luster completes 64.4% of his passes, Donovan Hamilton has topped 50 receiving yards in three straight games, and TJ Horton has five rushing touchdowns. Bowling Green's defense is better than Ball State's — which is like saying a fender bender is better than a plane crash — but the Falcons' offense only musters 107 rushing yards a game, and Jay Kastantin has thrown nearly as many picks (3) as touchdowns (5). If Ball State scratches into the low 20s, this cover stays alive the whole way.

The ugly truth: Ball State's defense allows 39 points and 467 yards a game, and Myles Bradley's seven sacks are coming for Luster like a debt collector. The Cardinals have lost four straight and haven't covered this number in eight straight road games. But the sharper math on this game projects a four-point final — and when the projection says four and the board says six and a half, you take the points, you take the ugly dog, and you don't apologize.

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