Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Center Parc Stadium, Atlanta, GA

Stream: ESPN+

Old Dominion +115 over Georgia St.

3:30 PM EST. This is almost a perfect example of why we have very little interest in chasing closing-line value. Old Dominion opened as the favorite. Now Georgia State is favored. Why? Georgia State is 4-0 against the spread, covering those four games by an average of 14.8 points, while Old Dominion is 0-4 ATS, missing the number by an average of 12.1 points. One team has been handing out winning tickets every week and the other has been lighting them on fire. Naturally, the market has decided it wants more Georgia State and nothing to do with Old Dominion.

That's precisely where our interest begins. The point spread isn't supposed to be a report card on what happened during the first four weeks. It's a price on what happens next. Georgia State's four covers have become increasingly expensive information, while Old Dominion's four failures have made the Monarchs increasingly cheaper. The market has moved far enough that the team originally considered good enough to be favored is now getting +2½. Our numbers haven't moved nearly that much, so we're happy to take the points after everyone else has run to the other window.

This is also why obsessing over CLV can become dangerous. Beating the close is useful evidence over a large sample, but it isn't the objective of the wager. If you automatically chase the side attracting money because you expect that movement to continue, you're often buying a team after its price has already been inflated. Georgia State is the perfect illustration: 4-0 ATS looks wonderful in the rearview mirror, but those winning tickets don't come with tonight's wager. Old Dominion's 0-4 ATS record doesn't make the Monarchs less valuable indefinitely either. At some point the adjustment becomes the opportunity.

The sportsbooks aren't in business because the betting public routinely identifies undervalued teams before they do. They're in business because bettors repeatedly pay premiums for teams they feel comfortable backing and demand discounts on teams they can't stomach. Right now, Georgia State is comfortable and Old Dominion is toxic. Fine by us. We're not interested in joining a four-week-old party after the market has already flipped the favorite. Give us the team nobody wants at the improved price.Or, you can let an idiot like Rob Pizzola convince you that CLV is the holy grail and congratulate yourself for beating the closing number. We'll continue worrying about beating the bookmaker.

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