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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI

Michigan -5½ -110 over Iowa 

3:30 PM EST. Michigan hasn't looked anything close to dominant for four quarters yet, and that's probably keeping this number below a touchdown. The Wolverines struggled with Western Michigan, had to grind out the Oklahoma game and were actually tied with UTEP at halftime before finally waking up and scoring 45 of the game's final 48 points. Iowa arrives unbeaten and has already posted two shutouts, so laying 5½ points with Michigan isn't going to feel particularly comfortable. We're fine with that. This looks like the first opponent capable of exposing some things Iowa hasn't had to deal with yet.

Start with Hawkeyes quarterback Hank Brown, who has enjoyed one of the cleanest pockets in the country. He's been pressured on only 10 of 65 dropbacks, hasn't been sacked and hasn't thrown an interception. That's impressive, but now comes the test. Michigan ranks 10th nationally in sacks per game and third in PFF's pass-rush grade, and the Wolverines have been generating that pressure without constantly having to blitz. If Michigan can get Brown off his spot while still keeping seven defenders in coverage, Iowa's offense becomes considerably more difficult to operate. Brown has been particularly effective off play-action, but pressure is one of the quickest ways to disrupt that part of the offense.

We're also not ready to assume this is another vintage Iowa defense simply because the early numbers look spectacular. The Hawkeyes lost their top six players in quarterback pressures from last season and 27 of their 28 sacks. There's talent among the replacements, but there's also a lot of inexperience that hasn't been seriously challenged yet. Michigan doesn't have to line up and repeatedly run directly into Iowa's strength, either. Bryce Underwood gives the Wolverines the ability to use motion, option concepts, perimeter runs and his own legs to force Iowa to defend the entire field. That's a much different assignment than anything the Hawkeyes have encountered through three games.

This is also Iowa's first road game with Brown as its starting quarterback and with several new starters along both lines. Ann Arbor against Michigan's defensive front is a substantial step up from what the Hawkeyes have seen. Iowa's preferred formula is obvious: shorten the game, win field position, avoid mistakes and drag Michigan into a fourth-quarter rock fight. Michigan is one of the few programs built to beat Iowa at that exact game while also possessing a quarterback who can create something when the structure breaks down. We don't need the Wolverines to be spectacular here. We need them to control the line of scrimmage, make Brown uncomfortable and eventually create enough separation

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