Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA

Stream: NBC

USC +3½ -110 over Oregon 

7:30 PM EST. Nothing repairs a reputation quite like beating somebody 84-0. Oregon absolutely obliterated Portland State last week, and suddenly the Ducks look like the national-title contender everyone expected them to be. We’re not putting much weight on a glorified scrimmage against an overmatched FCS opponent. Two weeks earlier, Oregon was pushed around by Oklahoma State, failing on all three fourth-down attempts and converting just five of 14 third downs. The Ducks have also allowed Dante Moore to face 20 pressures already this season, with his pressure-to-sack rate jumping significantly from a year ago. There are still issues here that Portland State wasn't remotely equipped to expose.

USC isn't difficult to criticize either. Rutgers put up 460 yards last week, Louisiana moved the football almost at will, and Gary Patterson's defense has been vulnerable through the air. The Trojans rank outside the top 100 nationally in both passing success rate and Pass EPA allowed while generating very little havoc. That's ugly, but it's also staring everybody in the face. Those defensive problems are precisely why we're getting more than a field goal at home with an undefeated USC team.

What gets considerably less attention is how dangerous USC remains offensively. Jayden Maiava has thrown 12 touchdowns against just one interception, and this is an offense capable of trading punches with Oregon for four quarters. Oregon's secondary has been the strength of its defense, but its supposedly dominant defensive front hasn't consistently overwhelmed opponents, while Moore and the Ducks have had protection issues of their own. This isn't Oregon walking into the Coliseum with some enormous matchup advantage. It's two talented teams with legitimate flaws, and the gap between them isn't nearly as large as last week's 84-0 score might have the market believing.

That's ultimately what this wager is about. Oregon just received the biggest possible perception boost while USC's stock took a hit after barely escaping Rutgers. Now the Ducks are being asked to go on the road and win by more than a field goal against a 4-0 USC team with enough offensive firepower to turn this into a four-quarter shootout. Oregon may very well score plenty against this Trojan defense, but USC should return the favor. In a game with very little separating these teams, give us the home points

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