Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Canisius +105 over Manhattan

1:00 PM EST Backing Canisius in this matchup is about spotting value in a team whose underlying defensive metrics are stronger than its record suggests. While Manhattan is coming off a solid win and has flashed offensive efficiency at times, the Jaspers remain one of the weakest defensive units in the country, allowing over 80 points per game and surrendering nearly 47% shooting from the field. That’s a dangerous profile when laying points. Even in victories, Manhattan has allowed high-percentage looks and struggled to control the glass, creating opportunities for opponents to stay within striking distance or close late.

Canisius, despite offensive inconsistency, brings a more stable defensive foundation into this contest. The Golden Griffins allow just over 71 points per game and defend the three-point line at a respectable clip. Against a Manhattan team that relies heavily on perimeter production and efficient shooting nights, defensive resistance can shift the balance. If Canisius can limit clean three-point looks and force Manhattan into contested half-court possessions, the pace naturally favors the underdog. In games projected to be competitive, defensive reliability often carries more value than streaky scoring.

From a betting perspective, this sets up as a classic buy-low opportunity. Manhattan’s recent win may inflate perception, but their season-long defensive issues remain unchanged. Canisius doesn’t need a dominant offensive outing to win — just a steady, disciplined performance that capitalizes on Manhattan’s lapses. When the favorite has clear structural flaws and the underdog brings a stronger defensive profile, that’s where the value lies. Taking Canisius provides the sharper side based on matchup dynamics and price.

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