Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Denver +125 over Omaha

1:00 PM EST Backing Denver in this Summit League matchup is about trusting offensive efficiency and recent momentum rather than simply home-court splits. The Pioneers are coming off an impressive win over South Dakota State where Carson Johnson poured in 23 points, and they’ve quietly averaged over 81 points per game across their last ten contests. Denver is shooting nearly 48% from the field in that span, a strong mark that suggests their scoring isn’t just volume-based — it’s efficient. When a team can generate consistent half-court offense and stretch the floor with nearly nine made threes per game, that translates well in conference play.

Omaha has been solid at home, but their defensive profile leaves room for concern in this matchup. The Mavericks are allowing 8.9 made threes per game and over 76 points per contest across their last ten outings. Denver’s perimeter attack aligns directly with that vulnerability. If the Pioneers establish rhythm from deep early, Omaha may be forced into a faster tempo than preferred. While the Mavericks have been competitive in close games, Denver has shown it can execute late as well, evidenced by its ability to manage tight Summit League contests and maintain offensive composure.

From a value standpoint, this sets up as a spot where Denver’s scoring upside provides the edge. Both teams post similar shooting percentages, but Denver’s recent offensive ceiling has been higher, and their go-to scorer in Johnson offers a reliable option when possessions tighten. In a matchup that projects to be competitive, siding with the team that brings slightly more firepower and is coming off a statement win offers the stronger betting angle. Denver has the tools to win this outright and continue building momentum in conference play.

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