Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Tampa Bay +113 over Cleveland

American League Championship Series — Game 3

1:00 PM ET. Gavin Williams has become the latest postseason pitching sensation, and apparently, we're all supposed to stand back and admire the show. Twenty-three strikeouts over two Division Series starts against the White Sox will certainly get everyone's attention. Throw in a fastball that's suddenly touching 99 MPH, and it's easy to understand why Cleveland is favored. The problem is that the market isn't offering a discount for all that excitement. It's charging a premium.

Williams has been outstanding, but the White Sox aren't the Tampa Bay Rays. Chicago's inability to make contact helped turn Williams into an October superhero, and now that performance is being carried forward as though another double-digit strikeout masterpiece is inevitable. Tampa Bay presents a different challenge, particularly against right-handed pitching. The Rays finished the regular season 67-47 against right-handed starters, the best mark in the American League, and can stack their lineup with left-handed bats while keeping Junior Caminero and Yandy Díaz, their two most dangerous right-handed hitters, in the middle of the order.

Griffin Jax won't attract nearly the same attention, which is another reason Tampa Bay is appealing at this price. His transition from reliever to starter has been unconventional, but his 3.53 ERA and 81 DRA- suggest there's considerably more substance here than his unfamiliar role might indicate. Jax also has a particularly useful weapon against Cleveland's left-handed hitters. His changeup has become an important part of his arsenal, and Guardians lefties have struggled against that pitch from right-handed pitchers. Cleveland's lineup is built around left-handed bats, making this a more interesting matchup than the starting-pitcher reputations suggest.

The Rays also bring a defensive advantage that shouldn't be overlooked. Tampa Bay converted 72% of balls in play into outs during the regular season compared to Cleveland's 69%. Chandler Simpson, Taylor Walls and Caminero give the Rays excellent defensive coverage, and that becomes particularly valuable in a postseason environment where a single extra out can change an entire inning. Cleveland learned that lesson Tuesday when a José Ramírez error helped Tampa Bay manufacture three runs.

There is one legitimate concern with the Rays, and that's their bullpen. Cleveland has the stronger collection of late-inning arms, and Jax isn't likely to work particularly deep into this game. However, that weakness is hardly a secret. It's already reflected in the number, along with Williams' recent dominance and Cleveland's home-field advantage.

What isn't getting nearly enough attention is that Cleveland finished just 41-40 at Progressive Field during the regular season. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, went 43-38 on the road. These aren't the profiles of a dominant home team facing an opponent incapable of winning away from its own ballpark.

The Guardians have the more celebrated starting pitcher and the superior bullpen, but Tampa Bay counters with a favorable offensive matchup, better defense and a starting pitcher whose repertoire matches up well against Cleveland's left-handed lineup. Williams might continue his remarkable postseason run, but at +113, the Rays offer the more attractive side of the equation. The difference between these clubs isn't nearly as significant as the pitching headlines would suggest.

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