Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Baltimore +122 over Toronto

7:07 PM EST. Chris Bassitt (RHP- Baltimore, 4.96 ERA) goes against Max Scherzer (RHP- Toronto, 6.03 ERA), and the current underlying numbers give Baltimore the more attractive side of this pitching matchup. Bassitt’s 2026 profile is hardly dominant, but his 6.4 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 are substantially more manageable than Scherzer’s 6.9 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9. More importantly, Bassitt’s 4.23 FIP and 5.05 xERA suggest a pitcher whose results have not been dramatically detached from the quality of his underlying performance.

Scherzer is the name that can make this matchup look closer than it really is. The current version has produced a 1.36 WHIP, allowed 1.87 home runs per nine innings and owns a 5.64 FIP against the 6.03 ERA. His strikeout rate has not disappeared, but the combination of missed bats, free passes and home-run damage leaves very little margin for error. His recent game log reinforces the volatility, with several short outings mixed between much better performances.

The Orioles are not being asked to beat the Scherzer of another era; they are being asked to beat the pitcher currently standing on the mound. Bassitt gives Baltimore a more stable platform, while Toronto's starter has been allowing too much damaging contact and putting too many runners aboard. The 4.96 ERA attached to Bassitt is not pretty, but the underlying FIP and strikeout-to-walk profile make him the preferable arm in this particular matchup.

We are going to take Baltimore on the road. This is a classic spot to put less emphasis on the reputation attached to one pitcher and more emphasis on what both arms are actually doing right now. Scherzer's current numbers leave Toronto vulnerable to an aggressive Baltimore lineup, while Bassitt has enough swing-and-miss and enough control to keep the Orioles in position. Baltimore is the side.

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